Vance Vs Rubio: Who Is The Favourite For 2028?

THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

Today’s headlines are a mix of geopolitical tension, espionage allegations, and fragile diplomacy: with a California mayor resigning over alleged links to China, Pakistan rocked by another deadly explosion, and fresh scrutiny surrounding Israel’s interception of a Gaza-bound flotilla.

Meanwhile, hopes for a US–Iran peace deal appear to be fading rapidly after Trump rejected Tehran’s latest proposal, even as Washington ramps up coordination with allies including the UK and Australia over security in the Strait of Hormuz.

As Trump continues his habit of pitting the two up against each other, we take a deep dive into where each politician is standing in the eventual race for the top seat.

THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. California mayor accused of acting as illegal agent of China resigns
Eileen Wang, the mayor of the Southern California city of Arcadia, has resigned after agreeing to plead guilty to acting as an unregistered agent for the Chinese government, according to U.S. federal prosecutors. Authorities allege Wang worked with associates linked to Beijing to promote pro-China propaganda through a Chinese-language media platform between 2020 and 2022, prior to her election to the city council. The case is the latest in a series of U.S. investigations into alleged Chinese influence operations targeting local politics and diaspora communities across the United States.
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2. Trump rejects Iran’s peace proposal response as more drones hit Gulf region
Peace hopes between Washington and Tehran are fading after Trump rejected Iran’s latest counterproposal as “garbage,” saying the current ceasefire is now “on life support.” Iran’s proposal reportedly demanded sanctions relief, compensation for war damages, recognition of Iranian sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, and an end to U.S. naval operations in the Gulf: conditions the White House considers unacceptable. The diplomatic deadlock has renewed fears of further escalation across the region, with oil prices climbing and maritime disruptions continuing.
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3. At least 9 killed, over 20 wounded in market explosion in Pakistan
At least nine people were killed and more than 20 wounded after a powerful explosion ripped through a crowded market in Pakistan’s northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, an area that has seen a sharp rise in militant violence near the Afghan border. Local officials said the blast occurred in a busy commercial district and caused significant damage to nearby shops and vehicles, with emergency crews transporting casualties to local hospitals as rescue operations continued. Authorities have not yet confirmed the cause of the explosion, though security forces have launched an investigation.
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4. Brazilian activist Avila alleges torture by Israel after Gaza flotilla detention  
Brazilian activist Thiago Avila has accused Israeli authorities of torture and mistreatment following his detention after Israeli forces intercepted a Gaza-bound aid flotilla in international waters near Crete. Avila, who was deported back to São Paulo after 10 days in custody, said he and other detainees were subjected to abuse and witnessed harsh treatment of Palestinian prisoners, allegations that Israel has denied. The incident has further intensified international scrutiny over Israel’s enforcement of the Gaza blockade, with Brazil and Spain previously criticising the activists’ detention as unlawful.
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5. US top diplomat discusses Iran, Strait of Hormuz with UK and Australia  
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio held separate talks with his counterparts in the United Kingdom and Australia to discuss the Iran conflict and ongoing efforts to restore freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. The discussions come amid escalating tensions in the Gulf, with recent drone incidents and attacks on commercial shipping threatening a fragile ceasefire between Washington and Tehran. According to the U.S. State Department, the talks focused on maritime security coordination and broader diplomatic efforts.
read more

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CONFLICT TRACKER

JD vs Rubio: Who's the Frontrunner?
At a White House dinner Monday night honouring law enforcement, Donald Trump did something he has a habit of doing: he made everyone a little uncomfortable about the future. Turning to the crowd assembled in the Rose Garden, Trump polled attendees on who they preferred, Vice President JD Vance or Secretary of State Marco Rubio, before remarking "sounds like a good ticket" and declaring the two a "dream team." He was quick to add the caveat: "That does not mean you have my endorsement under any circumstance." Vance was in the room, so was Rubio. 

It was a quintessential Trump move. GOP strategist Brian Seitchik described it as "very much in the president's DNA, to get a sense of where donors are and politicos," noting that Trump has long valued the competition it generates. The public-facing pulse check, however, obscures a more complicated story playing out in the background. 

The Vance Question
On paper, Vance leads. A recent Focaldata poll of likely Republican primary voters puts him at 40%, with Rubio at 14% and Donald Trump Jr. at 15%. He holds a 77% approval rating among Republicans and has the backing of Donald Trump Jr., Tucker Carlson, and Elon Musk. His profile is distinctly America First — the MAGA base's preferred successor, backed by big tech money with ties to Peter Thiel's orbit and has strong support within the current MAGA republican political establishment. 

But there are signs Vance may be thinking longer term. Sources have suggested he could pass on 2028 altogether, calculating that the Iran war makes a Democratic wave likely, and that a 2032 run on cleaner terrain makes more strategic sense. If true, it would be a rational read of the political environment. Another source at WaPo said that Vance is likely not looking at the 2028 election due to wanting to prioritise his family. 

The Iran war is also where Vance's position gets complicated. Vance, who has been the administration's most visible war sceptic, appeared to be reaching for a political win. The weeks leading up to the new Gulf war saw a variety of leaks to the press suggesting Vance was attempting to persuade Trump to go down the diplomatic route – allegedly even succeeding albeit briefly. Leaks are rarely without reason, I would wager this could have been leaked by his team to send a message to his support base that he remains firmly non-interventionist and America First. He then led the peace initiative in Oman, a diplomatic effort that would be better suited to the SOS Marco Rubio, likely to achieve a political victory for said non-interventionist movement. The problem is that volunteering for those negotiations tied him directly to an outcome he had little control over. When Iran refused to return to the table for a second round in Islamabad, citing the ongoing U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports, Vance was left holding the diplomatic bag. Trump sending him back would only deepen that association. Vance wanted to end the war. Now the war has his name on it.

The Rubio Counterargument
Rubio's case is a different kind of pitch. He holds dual roles as Secretary of State and National Security Advisor, a concentration of foreign policy power that is unusual by recent standards, and he has spent the past year accumulating the kind of institutional credibility that plays well with the traditional Republican establishment. He is a more conventional candidate — closer to the neoconservative wing of the party, palatable to traditional donors, and less likely to frighten the suburban voters Republicans need to win a general election. Trump himself said in March that Rubio is "doing a great job" and would "go down as the greatest secretary of State in history." His ceiling within the MAGA base is lower. But his floor is arguably more stable.

On an anecdotal level, Rubio’s social media presence is both stronger and less tainted than JD Vance. Vance has had a variety of memes and viral moments attached to him over the past year, many of which have reinforced perceptions of inauthenticity or opportunism rather than competence. Rubio, by contrast, has increasingly cultivated the image of the “adult in the room” within the administration. Among Republican voters, particularly older conservatives and suburban Republicans, that perception appears to be resonating. Focus groups conducted by political analyst Sarah Longwell found that many Trump voters now describe Rubio as “normal,” “competent,” and “statesmanlike,” especially when compared to more controversial figures surrounding Trump. Vance on the other hand, in my opinion simply lacks some of the “traditional” statesmanlike qualities, such as public speaking – where Vance has recently appeared quite awkward. 

Internationally, Vance is not the only one cementing diplomatic legacies. At this years Munich conference, Rubio delivered a vastly different speech, one that received a standing applause. In comparison, Vance Munich speech the previous year delivered international headlines that many saw as a symbolisation of a modern American-Europe split. Rubio was also side by side with Trump at the UFC main event, at the same moment that the Vance-led Islamabad talks (that Trump initiated) failed in less than 24 hours. 

Another important factor is that Rubio has quietly adapted himself to the modern Republican Party without appearing as erratic as some of his rivals. While Vance is often viewed as having dramatically reshaped his political identity in a short period of time, Rubio’s evolution has been more gradual and disciplined. That gives him a degree of ideological flexibility without completely destroying his credibility among institutional Republicans. At the same time, Rubio’s role in major foreign policy events, including Venezuela policy and ongoing international negotiations, has helped build an image of executive competence that many Republican voters increasingly value after years of internal party chaos.

Who Wants the Job?
The bigger question right now may not be who wins, but who runs. Neither Vance nor Rubio has declared intent. Vance has said he plans to sit down with Trump after the midterms to discuss 2028. The midterms themselves will tell a significant part of the story. Polymarket currently prices Republicans at a 54% chance of holding the Senate and Democrats at a 79% chance of taking the House. If Republicans get routed in November, the political calculus for both men shifts considerably. As one former DeSantis advisor put it: "It's JD's race to lose right now. That said, there are a million news cycles between now and a primary, and anything can happen." On that, at least, no one disagrees. 

Thank you for reading.

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(May 12, 1926): Aboard the semirigid airship Norge, Norwegian explorer Roald Amundsen, American scientist Lincoln Ellsworth, and Italian engineer Umberto Nobile made the first undisputed flight over the North Pole.