THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

From U.S. military drills in Puerto Rico to Russia’s largest aerial assault on Ukraine, the day brought a mix of security moves and political flashpoints.

We also saw unrest flare in Turkey and Nepal, alongside a deadly attack in Jerusalem that’s further inflamed regional tensions.

In today’s deep dive, we examine the Venezuelan military with a particular focus on its supplies from Russia, Iran, and China, as well as its air defense capabilities amidst a possible U.S attack.

THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. U.S. Marines & Sailors flaunt their naval might during exercises in Puerto Rico
U.S. Marines and sailors from the 22nd Marine Expeditionary Unit are conducting amphibious and flight exercises off southern Puerto Rico, leveraging the island’s tropical terrain to sharpen skills like patrolling, reconnaissance, and survival. This training is part of a broader U.S. military deployment in the Caribbean which includes warships, aircraft, and submarines, intended to bolster counter-narcotics efforts amid growing tensions with Venezuela.
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2. Russia strikes Ukraine government building in largest aerial assault of the war
Russia launched its largest aerial assault to date on Ukraine over the weekend, deploying over 800 drones and a dozen missiles, and for the first time striking the Cabinet of Ministers building in central Kyiv. The attack killed at least four people and caused widespread fire, damage to residential areas across multiple cities, and severe structural harm to the government headquarters. Ukrainian leaders condemned the strike as a deliberate escalation, highlighting deepening insecurity and urging the international community to supply stronger air defences and diplomatic pressure.
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3. Turkish police fires tear gas outside opposition HQ
Turkish riot police deployed tear gas and pepper spray to disperse protesters gathered outside the Istanbul headquarters of the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), after a court moved to suspend the party’s provincial leadership and appoint a trustee. The protests, which included CHP lawmakers, followed mounting anger over what critics called politically motivated interference, while authorities also imposed social media restrictions and banned demonstrations in key areas.
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4. ‘Gen Z protest’ turns deadly as mass riots erupt over social media ban in Nepal
Mass protests erupted across Kathmandu in response to Nepal’s government blocking 26 major social media platforms, including Facebook, X, Instagram, and YouTube, after they failed to register with authorities under a new directive. The demonstrations, largely driven by younger Nepalis, descended into violence as security forces used tear gas, water cannons, rubber bullets, and live rounds, leaving at least 17 dead and more than 100 injured. The abrupt blackout has sparked comparisons with digital censorship trends worldwide, raising serious concerns about freedom of expression, media repression, and escalating state control of public discourse.
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5. Six killed by gunmen at bus stop in Jerusalem, at least 15 wounded
A deadly shooting unfolded Monday morning at the Ramot Junction bus stop in Jerusalem when two assailants opened fire on passengers aboard a bus, killing six people and injuring around 21 others. The attackers were swiftly neutralised on the scene by an IDF soldier and an armed civilian, prompting heightened Israeli military operations in the West Bank around Ramallah. Israel's Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, vowed a "severe" response, reflecting broader tensions unfolding amidst escalating conflict in the region.
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DAILY DEEP DIVE

VENEZUELA: A MILITARY BREAKDOWN

Overall Summary
Venezuela fields a compact but heavily import-dependent force. Active personnel stand at around 109,000, backed by 8,000 reserves and over 200,000 paramilitary auxiliaries in the Bolivarian militia and National Guard. On global rankings, the country sits roughly mid-tier, but closer to the bottom of the regional table when compared to neighbours like Brazil or Colombia.

The air force controls about 229 aircraft, including Russian-built Su-30MK2 fighters and ageing American F-16s from the 1980s. Chinese Karakorum-8 trainer/combat jets and Y-8 transport aircraft bulk out the fleet, supported by a patchwork of imported radars. Sortie capacity and maintenance standards are unknown, and the prospect of acquiring Chinese J-10C fighters has been floated but not confirmed.

On the ground, the army’s inventory is diverse: Chinese VN-1 infantry fighting vehicles, VN-18 amphibious vehicles, VN-16 light tanks, and SR-5 multiple rocket launchers joined earlier Soviet and Western systems. Hundreds of VN-4 armoured personnel carriers, bought specifically for the National Guard.

The navy, often neglected, maintains roughly 34 hulls. That capability would appear modest in most regions, but was recently bolstered by the parade appearance of Iranian Zolfaghar-class missile boats armed with Nasr-1 anti-ship missiles.

Defence spending peaked around 2013 at $6.2 billion before collapsing alongside Venezuela’s wider economic crisis. Budgets today hover closer to $4 billion.

Russia
Russia has been Venezuela’s primary arms partner since Hugo Chávez’s era, supplying Su-30 fighters, tanks, rocket launchers and air defence systems. A new Rostec factory in Maracay finally opened its doors after years of delay and scandal, producing AK-103 rifles and up to 70 million cartridges a year. This is definitely a boost in defence capability due to less reliance on imports for small-arms ammunition.
But, the Russian relationship has its limits. Early years saw Venezuela borrow over $17 billion from Moscow, largely for weapons, but today the war in Ukraine has left little cash to spare. Current Russian support is pragmatic: help with oil laundering through Asia, fertilizer and vaccine shipments, and modest defence industry cooperation.

Iran
Iran has become a quiet but consequential partner. In 2023, Venezuelan parades revealed Zolfaghar-class fast attack craft, each carrying Nasr-1 anti-ship missiles. These were supplied through networks that skirt sanctions using straw companies abroad. 

Tehran also provides soft-power and technical backing: a drone manufacturing and training facility on Venezuelan soil, refinery repairs, and oil-for-gold swaps that keep the regime afloat. This drone facility could prove to be one of the best investments the regime has made, if used correctly.

China
China stepped decisively into Venezuela’s arsenal after the U.S. imposed an arms embargo in 2006, which left much of the Venezuelan Air Force’s American-made kit obsolete. Beijing offered everything from radar systems and transport aircraft to armoured vehicles and rocket artillery.

Between 2010 and 2016, Venezuela received K-8 trainer jets, Y-8 transports, VN-1 infantry fighting vehicles, VN-18 amphibious IFVs, VN-16 light tanks, and over a hundred VN-4 armored cars for internal security. More recently, reports suggest Venezuela is considering the acquisition of J-10C multirole fighters armed with modern PL-15 missiles, which would give its air force a qualitative leap. For now, that remains speculative.

Air Defence Capability
Venezuela’s air defence network is emblematic of its broader military trajectory: an uneasy mix of once-advanced systems, pragmatic imports, and political showmanship. In the mid-2000s, Caracas invested heavily in Israeli Barak-1 systems to protect high-value bases, only to retire them within years when support was cut under U.S. pressure, leaving the force to fall back on ZU-23 guns.

Since then, Russia has supplied a layered suite including Igla-S MANPADS, Buk-M2E medium-range SAMs, and the S-300VM Antey-2500, one of the region’s most sophisticated long-range systems. Complementing this are legacy Swedish RBS 70 launchers, Chinese radars, and naval C-802A and Iranian CM-90 anti-ship missiles. On paper, this creates a dense multi-tiered shield capable of complicating low-altitude strikes, deterring maritime incursions, and credibly threatening high-value aerial platforms.

Yet the drawbacks are clear: maintenance gaps, fractured supply chains, and reliance on foreign spares undermine operational readiness. Taken together, Venezuela possesses enough layered defences to impose costs on any incursion and to project a narrative of sovereignty, but the lack of integration, chronic resource shortages, and overwhelming U.S. technological superiority mean its air defence is questionable against a well-supplied and technologically advanced enemy.

Bonus:
One factor often overlooked by other analysts is Venezuela’s potential use of domestically produced kamikaze drones. Their destructive effectiveness has been demonstrated in both Ukraine and Russia, cheap, expendable, and deadly, they can provide as much deterrence through offensive capability as Venezuela’s multi-layered air defense systems. The challenge lies in production capacity, supply limitations, and training. While little is known about Venezuela’s own training standards, its allies have accumulated extensive experience in operating such drones, which could be transferred to bolster Venezuelan capabilities.

Sources:
AS/COA. (2023, November 14). Explainer: Iran’s relationship with Latin America. Americas Society / Council of the Americas. https://www.as-coa.org/articles/explainer-irans-relationship-latin-america

Cole, B. (2025, September 8). Maduro says US will not “enslave” Venezuela amid deployment of American warships. Newsweek. https://www.newsweek.com/maduro-us-warships-venezuela-1832315

Defence Industry Europe. (2023, July 28). Iran delivers weapon systems to Venezuela. https://defence-industry.eu/iran-delivers-weapon-systems-to-venezuela

Defence Security Asia. (2025, August 30). Venezuela may buy China’s J-10C fighter jets amid US tensions. https://defencesecurityasia.com/en/venezuela-china-j10c-fighter-jets-us-tensions

El Nacional / AFP. (2020, May 22). Maduro ordenó pruebas de misiles en La Orchila a la espera de buques de Irán. El Nacional. https://www.elnacional.com/mundo/maduro-ordeno-pruebas-de-misiles-en-la-orchila-a-la-espera-de-buques-de-iran

France 24. (2025, August 21). How Venezuela’s plan to arm 4.5 million militia raises risk of regional clash with US forces. France 24 / Army Recognition Group. https://www.france24.com/en/20250821-venezuela-plan-arm-militia-risks-us-clash

Global Firepower. (2025). 2025 Venezuela military strength. GlobalFirepower.com. https://www.globalfirepower.com/country-military-strength-detail.php?country_id=venezuela

Gurrola, G. (2018, July–August). China–Latin America arms sales: Antagonizing the United States in the Western Hemisphere? Military Review, 123–132. https://www.armyupress.army.mil/Journals/Military-Review/English-Edition-Archives/July-August-2018/Gurolla-China-Latam-Arms

Mitzer, S., & Oliemans, J. (2023, March 25). Backwards modernisation: Venezuela’s Israeli Barak-1 air defence systems. Oryx. https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2023/03/backwards-modernisation-venezuelas.html

Transparencia Venezuela, Reuters, & IMF data (as cited in EFE/André Coelho). (2025, August). Venezuela–Russia relations: Oil, arms, and sanctions. [News report].

TWEET OF THE DAY

Tariffs on Spain coming next?… 😂😂

TODAY IN HISTORY

(September 8, 1429): Joan of Arc attacks Paris

On this day in 1429, Joan of Arc, a French farmer's daughter who believed she was acting under divine guidance, attempted to oust the duke of Burgundy and take Paris for newly crowned King Charles VII.