THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

It was a busy weekend across the global stage — from Trump’s firm stance on Hungary’s oil requests to renewed defence ties between the U.S. and Cambodia.

Meanwhile, political unrest and protests have gripped parts of Africa and Eastern Europe, testing governments under pressure.

In today’s deep dive, we’re unpacking the bizarre landing outside Pokrovsk and what it means for the Ukrainian military.

THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. Trump says he hasn’t granted Hungary an exemption to buy Russian oil
Trump said that Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán had requested an exemption from U.S. sanctions on Russian oil but emphasised that no such exemption has yet been granted. As the U.S. targets Russian energy-linked entities such as Rosneft and Lukoil, Hungary’s dependence on pipeline-delivered crude through Ukraine and neighbouring states has come under fresh Washington scrutiny.
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2. Tanzania’s Hassan declared landslide winner in election marred by violence
Samia Suluhu Hassan was declared the landslide winner of Tanzania’s election, officially capturing approximately 97.66 % of the vote, according to the national electoral commission. The result comes amid significant unrest-protests erupted across major cities after her two main challengers were excluded, prompting a government-imposed curfew and reports of security forces using live fire. While the vote hands Hassan a new five-year term, it has also triggered intensified scrutiny from international observers over the fairness of the contest and the state of civil and political rights in Tanzania.
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3. Tens of thousands protest in Serbia on anniversary of deadly roof collapse
Tens of thousands of protesters gathered in Novi Sad and across Serbia on Saturday to mark the anniversary of a train station roof collapse that killed 16 people, laying wreaths and observing a moment of silence for each victim. The demonstrations reflect growing anger over alleged government corruption and sub-standard construction practices, with students and young activists demanding accountability and a sweeping political shake-up.
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4. Canada’s Carney apologises to Trump over Reagan ad
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney confirmed he privately apologised to U.S. President Donald Trump over an Ontario-commissioned advertisement that used edited clips from former President Ronald Reagan to critique tariffs, the ad drew Trump’s ire and led to the suspension of trade talks. Carney said he had reviewed the ad with Ontario Premier Doug Ford and advised against airing it, but it went ahead nevertheless. The incident underscored how delicate U.S.–Canada trade ties have become, with Ottawa signalling willingness to resume negotiations but Washington insisting on Canadian alignment with its broader policy.
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5. US, Cambodia revive defence drills after Trump-baced peace deal
The U.S. and Cambodia have agreed to revive the long-suspended Angkor Sentinel joint military exercise, the first since Phnom Penh called it off in 2017 amid rising Chinese influence. The move comes shortly after U.S. President Donald Trump brokered a peace deal between Cambodia and Thailand, signalling a strategic reset in U.S.–Cambodia defence ties. nalysts say the restoration of drills and lifting of the arms embargo reflect Washington’s bid to counter China’s growing footprint in Southeast Asia and position Cambodia back within the U.S.-led Indo-Pacific security architecture.
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DAILY DEEP DIVE

THE ‘BLACKHAWK’ LANDING…

The milblogger space has exploded today with footage showing one — of a possibly two BlackHawk helicopters — landing outside Pokrovsk in what is effectively a grey zone, deploying GUR special operations troops. Within just 12 hours, Russian media released montage-style videos allegedly showing almost all these soldiers being hunted by Russian drone teams. There’s a lot to unpack here, so let’s get straight into it.

Purpose of Mission?
According to the reputable @thorkill65 (Telegram), we have at least one Ukrainian HUR SOF helicopter assault in the Pokrovsk Industrial Zone, likely filmed today. The unit is believed to be from the 10th Independent Special Purpose Detachment. Their probable objective was to retake the former Geological Research Directorate building, captured by Russian forces around October 20, 2025. This has been a focus point of Ukrainian artillery and drone targeting the last ten days, so the claim has truth to it. Reports from Russian Telegram channels suggest this was part of a wider Ukrainian counteroffensive to regain control of the northwestern city entrance, supported by armoured attacks from Hryshyne. The outcome remains unknown, with no verified details on casualties or territorial gains.

Other sources suggest the Ukrainian helicopter assault team may have included much needed frontline drone operators, deployed to support remaining troops trapped in the Pokrovsk pocket. Their role was reportedly to stabilise collapsing defensive lines by countering advancing Russian FPV and reconnaissance drones, buying time for infantry to withdraw. This follows footage showing Russian drone teams already operating deep within Pokrovsk’s inner suburbs, indicating that the city’s defensive perimeter has effectively fractured. If accurate, this operation was less about retaking ground and more about delaying Russian advances long enough for Ukrainian units to stage an organised retreat.

Result
According to AMK_Mapping, geolocation analysis shows 11 Ukrainian HUR soldiers were dropped behind Russian lines near Pokrovsk. They split into two groups—one toward the O0525 Highway, the other toward the industrial zone. Both groups were systematically targeted by Russian FPV drones. All 11 were likely killed or wounded, with no evacuation possible.

Risk VS Reward
There are believed to be three American UH-60 Black Hawks in Ukrainian service, operated exclusively by the HUR. Two of these were reportedly involved in the Pokrovsk operation, with one landing dangerously close to the frontline,  so close it was filmed by Russian surveillance drones. Given the apparent failure of the mission, serious questions arise about whether it was worth the risk. Had the Russians managed to destroy a Black Hawk, it would have been a catastrophic blow on multiple levels: another propaganda triumph for Moscow, a potential political setback for Kyiv amid tense relations with President Trump, and a severe military loss of elite aircraft, pilots, and special forces personnel.

Regardless whether the operation was successful or not, an operation like this should not have been necessary if a properly orchestrated retreat was planned — we go into this in the next section.

Issues
From my perspective, this reflects a broader failure in Syrskyi’s leadership and strategy. Once again, we’re witnessing an unprepared evacuation of a city pocket—precisely the kind of scenario Russian forces have been anticipating. In a desperate attempt to cover retreating troops against 27,000 Russian troops, Ukraine resorted to an exceptionally risky helicopter insertion of a dozen soldiers. Even many pro-Ukrainian commentators agree that this was a preventable disaster. The Ukrainian command, fully aware of the deteriorating situation, could have organized a timely withdrawal from Pokrovsk, which had long ceased to function as a key logistical hub.

Why aren’t we seeing proper withdrawals? We didn’t in Avdiivka, Kursk, Vulhedar, we saw the same mistakes in Bakhmut, and now it’s repeating in Pokrovsk. The answer likely lies in politics, not strategy. Syrskyi is widely viewed as Zelensky’s loyalist, placed in his position amid growing alleged tensions with Zaluzhnyi, whose popularity and credibility among the ranks and populace remain strong. This dynamic may be influencing key military decisions, prioritising political optics over operational pragmatism. One example I would consider is that Zelensky does want Trump to see news that another major city has fallen.  Instead of calculated retreats to preserve manpower, Ukraine’s leadership appears intent on symbolic last stands, even when positions have lost their tactical and logistical value. At the end of the day, taking politics, military everything away these actions are leading to men, who are fathers, sons, brothers, friends dying for futile operations. 

I’d also wager, based on the rhetoric coming from senior Ukrainian officials, that there’s a growing disconnect between the reality on the ground and the narrative in Kyiv’s political offices. The language being used suggests a separation from the actual conditions soldiers are facing, replaced instead by politically convenient optimism. 

At the end of the day, when you strip away the politics and military strategy, what remains is the human cost. These decisions are leading to the deaths of men who are fathers, sons, brothers, and friends, dying in futile operations that achieve little beyond prolonging the inevitable.

Sources:
News/Journal sources available upon request, not shown to maintain visual integrity of page.
Thorkill on T, AMK_Mapping

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TODAY IN HISTORY

(November 1, 1952): First thermonuclear bomb tested by the United States

On this day in 1952 on an atoll of the Marshall Islands, Edward Teller and other American scientists tested the first thermonuclear bomb, its power resulting from an uncontrolled, self-sustaining nuclear chain reaction.