Week Three Is One of Escalation, An Overview Of The Last 7 Days

THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

Today’s lineup is heavy on diplomacy and war-time maneuvering: Trump says the U.S. could start winding down the Iran war even as Washington floats a Gaza disarmament plan and moves to cool oil prices with a temporary Iranian crude waiver.

Meanwhile, the UK has green-lit the use of its bases for U.S. strikes tied to the Strait of Hormuz, and India’s Narendra Modi is on the phone with Iran’s president as global leaders try to keep shipping lanes and tensions from spiralling further.

In today’s deep dive, we summarise the main events of this week and how it can be summarised as one word: Escalation.

THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. Trump says he is considering ‘winding down’ Iran war
Trump said he is considering “winding down” the war with Iran, suggesting the United States may be nearing its military objectives after weeks of escalating strikes and regional fighting. At the same time, he ruled out an immediate ceasefire and indicated that other countries might eventually take responsibility for securing the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil shipping route. The remarks come as the conflict continues across the region and the U.S. still maintains a significant military presence in the Middle East.
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2. Hamas considering disarmament plan from Board of Peace, officials say
Hamas is considering a disarmament proposal presented by Trump’s “Board of Peace”, according to officials involved in ongoing diplomacy over Gaza’s future. The plan reportedly calls for Hamas and other armed groups to gradually hand over their weapons while Israeli forces withdraw from the territory and reconstruction efforts begin under international oversight. Talks on the proposal were held in Cairo, though the process has slowed amid the wider regional conflict and Hamas has not yet agreed to fully disarm.
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3. US allows 30-day sale of Iran oil at sea in bid to tame prices
The United States has issued a 30-day sanctions waiver allowing the sale of Iranian oil that is already loaded on tankers at sea, in an effort to ease surging global energy prices during the ongoing regional conflict. Officials say the move could release roughly 140 million barrels of oil onto the market and help stabilize supply chains as prices have climbed sharply since fighting escalated. The temporary measure does not authorize new production, but is intended to bring stranded shipments to buyers while Washington tries to curb the impact of the crisis on global oil markets.
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4. UK allows US to use bases to strike Iranian sites targeting Strait of Hormuz
The United Kingdom has approved the United States’ request to use British military bases to launch strikes on Iranian missile sites believed to be targeting ships in the Strait of Hormuz. The decision followed a meeting of UK ministers and marks a shift after earlier hesitation from Prime Minister Keir Starmer over legal and escalation concerns. British officials said the move is intended to protect shipping and regional security, while Iran warned the decision could make UK interests a target as tensions continue to rise.
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5. Indian Prime Minister Modi speaks to Iran’s Pezeshkian
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi held a phone call with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian as tensions continue across the Middle East. During the conversation, Modi condemned attacks on critical infrastructure and stressed the importance of keeping key shipping lanes open and secure amid disruptions linked to the conflict. He also conveyed Eid and Nowruz greetings and thanked Iran for helping ensure the safety of Indian nationals in the country.
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WEEK 3: THE WEEK OF ESCALATION

Week 3 can be described in one word: escalation.

What we’ve seen over the past few days is a clear shift from controlled strikes to targeting economic and strategic infrastructure. Israel hitting the South Pars gas field is a major step. This is not just another military target, this is the core of Iran’s energy economy. It is also something the U.S. historically avoids due to the global consequences. Yet the strike still happened, either enabled through CENTCOM airspace, ignored, or simply not prevented.

Iran’s response came fast, within a few hours we saw the first hits on Qatari and Saudi sites. Multiple waves of attacks hit six refineries and ports across four different countries. This was not symbolic retaliation. It was a message. Any strike on Iranian infrastructure will be paid for across the entire region, not just within Iran’s borders. Allies of the U.S. and Israel are now directly part of the equation whether they like it or not. This is the escalation ladder in its clearest form.

This is where the situation starts compounding. According to recent reporting, the UAE is preparing for a conflict that could last up to nine months. Saudi Arabia has opened King Fahd Air Base to U.S. forces. There are also indications that Washington is pushing Riyadh to take a more active strike role, while Trump and MBS remain in constant communication. The regional architecture is shifting from indirect involvement to something much more direct.

The problem now is escalation psychology. This is effectively a standoff where no actor wants to be seen backing down. Internal pressures, political optics, and credibility all start to play a role. If one side steps back, it risks looking weak, and that alone can drive further escalation even if it is not strategically rational. I would take Trump’s words about “winding down the conflict” as bait to see the reaction from allies, adversaries and most importantly voters. Mixed messaging is classic Trump rhetoric, given he says this as the ambhibious landing fleet heads to Iran.

At the same time, Iran is clearly still in the fight. We are seeing increased missile salvos, possibly aided by weather conditions that reduce visibility for Western ISR. There are also growing signs that the airspace is more contested than initially assumed. Reports of an F-35 being hit, along with another Israeli F-16 forced to evade air defense missiles, point to a more complex environment. And just to clarify, I do believe the alliance has close-to-air superiority in certain parts of Iran. Warthogs and F-18s conducting strafing runs are good evidence of that. Equally, what we’ve seen with the F-35, and now Israeli F-16, indicates that not all air defenses have been knocked out.

Note: As I write this the IRGC are saying they’ve “hit a third F-16” – unconfirmed. 

Iran Can Fire Further Than Thought?
One point that is being overlooked is range. Iran reportedly launched intermediate-range ballistic missiles toward Diego Garcia. Neither struck the base, but that is not the takeaway. The fact they attempted it changes the picture. If Iran is approaching a capability to threaten assets at that distance, the urgency behind recent strikes starts to make a lot more sense.

The Trump-Bibi Split?
This is also the second clear public sign we’re seeing differing war goals emerge between the U.S. and Israel. Washington appears focused on controlled escalation and maintaining off-ramps, while Israel is targeting deeper systemic disruption, including energy infrastructure and key political figures. The strikes on South Pars and figures like Larijani suggest Israel is prioritising long-term destabilisation, potentially regime change. Meanwhile, U.S. messaging has been inconsistent, at times distancing itself from Israeli actions. Whether this is deliberate political cover or genuine divergence, the gap in strategic objectives is becoming harder to ignore.

Iraq As A Major Front?
One aspect of this war that has surprised me is high-level of involvement of the Iraq front. The Iran-backed militia’s have definitely been a major nuisance for American forces in the region. From disrupting northern Iraq in moments when we were looking at possible Kurdish intervention in the conflict, to continuous attacks on the U.S. embassy and various bases. A temporary five-day pause in attacks on the U.S. embassy has been announced by Kataib Hezbollah, but it remains fragile and conditional on reduced strikes and intelligence activity. At the same time, Iran believes Israel is deliberately expanding the conflict into Iraq, aiming to pressure Shia armed groups, though major factions remain reluctant to fully enter the war (Source: HamidRezaAz via X)

Israeli Air Defence Struggling?
We’re beginning to see more impacts in Israel but that could be due to other factors besides interceptor fatigue — failure of censorship etc. What is more interesting is recent security footage showing the 16 seconds between a missile impact and the start of air raid sirens. Is this a one off? Failure of detection systems? Or possibly a short-range missile launched from Hezbollah that slipped through? Other sources are now stating that upon hearing air raid sirens soon after they can hear the sounds of jets — suggesting a reliance on jets over interceptors. Important hits in just the last 48 hours are on Israelis Haifa refinery and the Ben Ami military base. As a counter-point however, a recent video showed a Iron Dome interceptor hit an Iranian missile in the very last second, flying practically horizontally. There are clearly improvements in targeting on the short and medium-range AD.

Israeli Siren Footage

Sources available upon request

TWEET OF THE DAY

TODAY IN HISTORY

(March 21, 1963): Alcatraz prison is shut down

On this day in 1963, the prison on San Francisco Bay's Alcatraz Island was formally shut down by the government. It had long held famous prisoners such as Al Capone and Robert Stroud (nicknamed the “Birdman of Alcatraz”). During its operation, 36 men attempted to escape—and five are still listed as “missing and presumed drowned.” The prison was ultimately shut down because of high costs. Months after becoming a part of the National Park Service, Alcatraz Island had more visitors than in the previous 120 years combined.