What Is The Donroe Doctrine - And What's It Mean For Geopolitics?

THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

From NATO debates over Greenland to courtroom drama in New York, today’s headlines span alliance politics, contested power and fragile ceasefires.

We’re also tracking tensions along the Thailand–Cambodia border, an election win that tightens control in the Central African Republic, and fresh diplomacy as Yemen’s southern separatists head to Saudi Arabia for talks.

In today’s Deep Dive, with all the talk about Greenland, Colombia, Cuba and the Donroe Doctrine, we examine what this all really means.

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THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. Hungarian PM says Greenland is an in-house NATO issue
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán said the question of Greenland should be addressed within the framework of NATO, noting that both Denmark and the United States are members of the alliance and any discussion about changes to the status of the territory could be taken up collectively by NATO members. Orbán characterised Greenland as an internal NATO issue rather than an international crisis, suggesting that alliance mechanisms, rather than unilateral actions, are the appropriate forum for deliberation if the topic is raised.
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2. Maduro pleads not guilty to drugs charges in first US court appearance
Maduro appeared in a New York federal courtroom on Monday and pleaded not guilty to U.S. federal drug trafficking and narco-terrorism charges, rejecting the allegations that he led a criminal conspiracy to traffic cocaine into the United States. Speaking through an interpreter, Maduro declared himself innocent, insisted he remains Venezuela’s legitimate president, and described his capture by U.S. forces as a “kidnapping,” while Judge Alvin Hellerstein ordered him and his wife, co-defendant Cilia Flores, to remain in custody with their next hearing set for March 17.
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3. Thailand says Cambodia violated ceasefire with cross-border ‘accident’
Thailand’s army said on Tuesday that Cambodian forces violated a 10-day-old truce by firing mortar rounds across the border into Ubon Ratchathani province, wounding one Thai soldier and prompting Bangkok to lodge a formal protest with Phnom Penh. Cambodia’s military later contacted Thai units to say the fire was an accident caused by an “operational error,” not an intentional attack, though the incident nonetheless disrupted efforts to solidify a fragile ceasefire agreed on December 27 to halt weeks of deadly clashes along the long-disputed border.
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4. Touadera wins Central African Republic presidential election
Central African Republic President Faustin-Archange Touadéra has won a third presidential term after securing 76.15 % of the vote in the December 28 general election, according to provisional results released by the National Electoral Authority. Touadéra, who has led the country since 2016 and was eligible to run again after a 2023 constitutional change that removed presidential term limits, far outpaced main challengers including former Prime Ministers Anicet-Georges Dologuélé and Henri-Marie Dondra. The major opposition coalition boycotted the vote, alleging an unequal political environment, and the results will be reviewed and potentially finalised by the Constitutional Court by mid-January.
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5. Delegation led by Yemen’s main separatist group to travel to Saudi Arabia, sources say
A delegation led by Aidarous al-Zubaidi, leader of Yemen’s main separatist group (STC) is expected to travel to Saudi Arabia for talks aimed at addressing recent conflict with Yemen’s internationally recognised government, two sources told Reuters. The visit follows a Saudi-led initiative to host dialogue among southern Yemeni factions in Riyadh, which the STC has welcomed as a potential step toward resolving the crisis that erupted after the separatists seized key eastern provinces late last year.
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DAILY DEEP DIVE

THE DONROE DOCTRINE

If you ever find yourself scratching your head when a new political event breaks, unsure what it means or how it even happened, don’t be bewildered. The political commentator and comedian Tim Dillon put it best when reflecting on the past twelve months of political chaos (and I’m paraphrasing here): don’t beat yourself up for not understanding what’s going on. If you do understand it all, you’re probably part of the system — or the deep state.

A Possible Crystal Ball?
However, if there was one document I would suggest reading that might give you a crystal ball into the next couple of years geopolitically it's the new National Security Strategy (NSS). The U.S. The NSS  marks a sharp break from decades of American foreign-policy orthodoxy, re-centring U.S. strategy around concrete national interests rather than democracy promotion, regime change, or climate-driven defence planning. The document is structured around four core pillars: defending the homeland and the Western Hemisphere, deterring China, forcing greater allied burden-sharing, and rapidly expanding the U.S. defence industrial base.

Read the NSS here (its only about 20 pages)

The most consequential shift is the revival of a modernised Monroe Doctrine. If you have been a long time reader of the newsletter you will understand we have talked about this LONG before it became public – not toot our own horn or anything! The NSS frames the Western Hemisphere as a vital U.S. security zone and signals a long-term effort to block Chinese, Russian, and Iranian influence across Latin America. While force-posture changes remain undefined, the strategy leaves open the possibility of increased U.S. military presence in the region.

The document has also unsettled Europe. It adopts unusually blunt language on European political decline, signals resistance to further NATO expansion, and prioritises burden-sharing over transatlantic unity. Concerns have emerged that this approach could weaken deterrence, particularly amid reports of potential U.S. troop reductions in Eastern Europe. On China, the NSS argues that decades of engagement failed to liberalise Beijing. Instead, China is described as a near-peer competitor that exploited economic integration to strengthen its position. The strategy highlights unfair subsidies, IP theft, espionage, supply-chain vulnerabilities, and fentanyl precursor exports, concluding that tariffs will remain and economic ties will be rebalanced around reciprocity and U.S. economic independence.

Regarding the crystal ball aspect, we’ve already seen that the U.S. is willing to assert its dominance over the region to publicly disrupt what it considers major drug trafficking operations — from drone strikes to the capture of the President of Venezuela and his wife. In that sense, we don’t believe this is over yet. Keep an eye on Cuba, Colombia, and Mexico.

So what’s the big deal with Greenland? Its location anchors U.S. missile-warning systems, space surveillance, and air and naval access across the North Atlantic and the Arctic, directly supporting deterrence against Russia and China. The document’s emphasis on securing supply chains and critical minerals further elevates Greenland’s importance as Arctic resources and sea lanes become more accessible. Finally, preventing hostile powers from establishing a strategic foothold in the Western Hemisphere’s extended periphery aligns squarely with the NSS’s revived Monroe-style approach to regional security.

You can also make an argument that we’re seeing a potential divide of the earth into zones of influence. Go back to the 19th century and look at the "Scramble for Africa” for instance. There is a possibility the U.S is laying its claim to the Americas, whereas for example, China and the U.S. might have agreed upon China having more regional influence. This is not guaranteed but some analysts have discussed it.

Realism And The Power of State Actors
Going back to our opening point about feeling bewildered, expect more confusion ahead. If you read this document closely, you’ll notice a strong realist and pragmatic current — sometimes stated outright, other times deliberately embedded between the lines. It is heavily grounded in political realism, the idea that states act primarily to protect their power, security, and interests rather than abstract ideals or moral principles, and that international politics is shaped by competition, balance of power, and survival in an anarchic system. What this ultimately means is that U.S. policy will remain geopolitically malleable, shifting in response to whichever threats are perceived as most immediate or dangerous. This will only be compounded by Trump’s ‘bipolar’ diplomatic style, which in itself is grounded in business like pragmatism. This also means that I would not expect a new era where international law simply is pushed aside to astronomical levels. We are already seeing it (and have since international law was made mainstream) — but expect much, much more.

Sources
News/Journal sources available upon request, not shown to maintain visual integrity of page.

TWEET OF THE DAY

Investors don’t seem very loyal, lol.

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