What Israel Wants With Somaliland

THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

Across multiple regions, governments moved toward harder security postures. In Asia, Japan and the Philippines deepened defence cooperation amid rising Chinese pressure.

In the Middle East, Gulf states intensified diplomacy to prevent a US–Iran escalation. In Europe, the UK prepared wider mobilisation of veterans as war risks grow.

Meanwhile, domestic instability sharpened in democracies, with South Korea jailing an ex-president and the US weighing military powers to quell unrest.

In today’s deep dive, we examine why Israel has recognised Somaliland. Somaliland offers Israel direct access to the Red Sea and its adversary, the Houthis, plus economic interests.

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THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. South Korea’s ex-president Yoon given 5-year jail term in martial law case
South Korea’s former president Yoon Suk Yeol has been sentenced to five years in prison after being found guilty of obstructing justice and falsifying documents over his failed December 2024 martial law declaration. The court said Yoon gravely violated constitutional duties. He plans to appeal and still faces a separate insurrection trial, where prosecutors are seeking the death penalty.
read more 

2. Veterans aged 65 told to prepare for war says UK Government 
The UK government plans to raise the mobilisation age for retired military personnel from 55 to 65 under a new Armed Forces bill, lowering the call-up threshold to “warlike preparations.” The move reflects manpower shortages, potential deployment to Ukraine, and mounting concerns Britain is underfunded and unprepared for a major war despite rising defence spending pledges by Keir Starmer.
read more

3. Trump threatens to invoke Insurrection Act as protests grow in Minneapolis over shootings
US President Donald Trump has threatened to invoke the Insurrection Act to deploy troops in Minnesota as protests intensify over fatal shootings involving immigration agents in Minneapolis. Nearly 3,000 federal officers have been deployed amid clashes, allegations of racial profiling, and lawsuits by state officials and civil rights groups, raising fears of military involvement in domestic law enforcement.
read more

4. Gulf countries gear up diplomacy to stave off US-Iran escalation 
Gulf states including Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Oman are intensifying diplomacy to prevent a US–Iran escalation as protests grip Iran and Donald Trump threatens military action. The countries fear regional chaos, oil disruption and retaliation on their soil, preferring de-escalation over regime collapse, which they warn could destabilise the Middle East much like Iraq after 2003.
read more

5. Japan and the Philippines sign a new defense pact as they face growing China aggression
Japan and the Philippines have signed a new defence logistics pact allowing tax-free sharing of supplies during joint military exercises, strengthening deterrence against China’s regional assertiveness. Signed in Manila by Japanese Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi and Philippine Foreign Secretary Theresa Lazaro, the deal deepens security cooperation amid tensions in the South and East China Seas.
read more

DAILY DEEP DIVE

What Israel Wants With Somaliland

Exec Summary
Israel’s decision to recognise Somaliland marks a deliberate shift toward unconventional, transactional alliances shaped less by diplomacy norms and more by geography, security, and leverage. It is a move driven by strategic necessity rather than ideology, reflecting Israel’s increasingly constrained regional environment after prolonged conflict and diplomatic isolation.

Location, Location, Location — Is Everything In Geopolitics
At its core, geography explains much of the decision. Somaliland sits on the Gulf of Aden at the entrance to the Red Sea, one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints. From Israel’s perspective, recognition offers potential access to territory directly opposite Houthi-controlled Yemen. Since late 2023, the Houthis have emerged as a direct and persistent threat to Israeli interests, targeting shipping and launching long-range missiles and drones. Establishing intelligence, logistical, or security cooperation in Somaliland would place Israel closer to this threat than ever before, reducing reliance on distant strikes and expanding its operational depth. As several Israeli analysts have noted, this proximity alone gives Somaliland strategic value disproportionate to its size.

New Friends, New Strategies
Security dynamics are only part of the equation. Israel’s recognition also reflects a broader recalibration of its alliance strategy. Traditionally reliant on formal state-to-state ties, Israel has increasingly sought partnerships with peripheral or semi-recognised actors where mutual needs align. Somaliland, internationally isolated since declaring independence in 1991, is actively seeking recognition and security guarantees. Israel, facing diplomatic pressure over Gaza and deteriorating relations across much of the Global South, gains a partner with little to lose and clear incentives to cooperate. This symmetry makes the relationship unusually resilient to external criticism.

It’s Raining Me…Infrastructure Projects and Trade!
Trade and infrastructure further strengthen the logic. Berbera port, already operated by a UAE-linked company, sits astride key shipping lanes connecting Europe, Asia, and East Africa. For Israel, involvement—direct or indirect—in this corridor enhances maritime awareness and commercial optionality while complementing existing ties with Gulf partners, particularly the UAE. In a region where economic routes and security routes increasingly overlap, ports matter as much as bases.

Turkey Is Watching Closely
There are also wider geopolitical considerations. Somaliland positions itself as a pro-Western actor, cultivating ties with Taiwan and now Israel while distancing itself from China, Iran, and Türkiye’s expanding footprint in Somalia. For Israel, this alignment reinforces a familiar “periphery doctrine”: building influence around hostile actors rather than confronting them head-on. While countering Türkiye is likely secondary, Israel’s presence complicates Ankara’s growing role in the Horn of Africa.

Ultimately, Israel’s recognition of Somaliland is less about Somaliland itself than about adaptation. It reflects an Israel preparing for a more fragmented, less predictable international order—one where recognition, access, and leverage are negotiated case by case. For Somaliland, it is a diplomatic breakthrough. For Israel, it is a calculated bet that geography and necessity can still produce allies where conventional diplomacy no longer does.

Sources
News/Journal sources available upon request, not shown to maintain visual integrity of page.

TWEET OF THE DAY

The European Trap card - Extensive Bureaucracy, bonus LOTR reference.

TODAY IN HISTORY

(January 16, 2025): The Roman Senate formally bestowed the title Augustus on Gaius Julius Caesar Octavianus, transforming him from triumvir to supreme ruler. The act marked the constitutional foundation of the Principate and the effective beginning of the Roman Empire under a single, enduring authority.