What Saudi Airstrikes In Yemen Mean For The Region

THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

From deadly attacks in Nigeria to U.S. airstrikes against Islamic State militants, today’s briefing opens with security tensions rippling across West Africa.

We then turn to Myanmar’s first election since the 2021 coup, a drone strike near Chad’s volatile Sudan border, and high-stakes diplomacy as Zelensky prepares to meet Trump on a U.S.-backed peace push.

In today’s Deep Dive, we’re breaking down what’s unfolding in Yemen as Saudi Arabia moves to reassert its influence amid rising tensions with UAE-backed southern forces.

THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. At least 5 killed in attack during evening prayers at mosque in Nigeria
At least five people were killed and around 35 others injured when a bomb exploded during evening prayers at a mosque in Maiduguri, Borno State, on Wednesday night, with police describing the incident as a likely suicide attack after fragments of a suspected suicide vest were recovered at the scene. The blast is the latest in a long-running campaign of violence in Nigeria’s northeast, where security forces continue to battle armed groups including Boko Haram and its splinter, Islamic State West Africa Province.
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2. US carries out strikes on Nigeria targeting Islamic State militants
The United States carried out airstrikes against Islamic State militants in northwest Nigeria’s Sokoto State on Christmas Day, with U.S. Africa Command saying the operation was conducted at the request of the Nigerian government and killed multiple militants. Trump announced the strikes on social media, describing them as “powerful and deadly” and saying they targeted fighters he accused of attacking Christian communities, a claim Nigeria’s government says oversimplifies the nation’s broader security challenges.
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3. Myanmar will hold its first general election in 5 years as criticism of the military rule mounts
Myanmar is holding its first general election in five years beginning December 28, a multi-phase vote that comes nearly five years after the 2021 military coup that ousted the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi, with further rounds scheduled for January 11 and January 25. The ruling junta presents the election as a return to multi-party democracy, but critics say the vote is unlikely to be free or fair, noting that key parties, including Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy, are barred or dissolved and many areas remain outside government control due to ongoing civil conflict.
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4. Drone attack kills two soldiers in Chad near Sudan border
A drone strike targeted a military camp near the town of Tiné in eastern Chad close to the Sudanese border, killing two Chadian soldiers and seriously injuring another, local authorities and security sources said. The early-morning attack occurred before dawn on December 26, but officials have not yet identified who was responsible for the strike. The incident highlights growing regional instability along the Chad–Sudan frontier, where ongoing conflict in Sudan has increasingly spilled over into neighbouring areas.
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5. Zelenskyy plans to meet Trump on Sunday for talks on peace deal
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy said he plans to meet with Trump in Florida on Sunday to advance discussions on a U.S.-mediated peace plan aimed at ending Russia’s nearly four-year war with Ukraine. The meeting follows weeks of negotiations that have produced a revised 20-point peace proposal now described by Kyiv as about “90% ready,” including elements on security guarantees, reconstruction and controversial territorial issues.
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DAILY DEEP DIVE

NEW SAUDI AIRSTRIKES IN YEMEN

Saudi Airstrikes Raise Tensions in Southern Yemen
Separatists in southern Yemen have accused Saudi Arabia of carrying out airstrikes against their forces in Hadramout, sharply escalating tensions within the already fragile anti-Houthi coalition. The UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC) said the strikes took place after its fighters clashed with local gunmen in eastern Hadramout, where two STC members were killed and twelve wounded in ambushes earlier in the day. According to STC officials, Saudi aircraft struck their positions shortly afterward, destroying what witnesses described as military vehicles linked to Council-aligned forces.
Saudi Arabia has not publicly acknowledged the strikes, though the incident follows Riyadh’s warning for STC units to withdraw from recently seized governorates. Local tribal figures suggested the airstrikes were intended as a signal rather than a full escalation, reinforcing Saudi red lines over unilateral STC advances. Footage aired by STC-linked media appeared to show the aftermath of the strikes, with voices in the video blaming Saudi aircraft. If confirmed, the incident marks one of the most serious confrontations yet between nominal allies inside Yemen’s fractured coalition.

This comes after it has been reported that around 20,000 Saudi-backed National Shield Forces are reportedly massing along Yemen’s border as pressure mounts on the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council to roll back its recent territorial gains in oil-rich Hadramout. In recent days, NSF units have seized the Akban and Al-Wahd checkpoints from STC forces and are advancing toward Al-Khash’ah, reportedly aiming to take control of the 37th Brigade.

We’re likely going to see such events continue to increase as the Saudi’s will not want to lose any more influence in what is basically their own backyard. First it was Iran cementing it’s influence, now it’s the UAE.

UAE-Backed Southern Expansion Reshapes Yemen’s Balance
The alleged Saudi strikes come amid one of the most significant territorial shifts in southern Yemen in years. Earlier this month, STC forces swept through much of Hadramout, seizing Seiyun, key oil fields, energy infrastructure, and PetroMasila—Yemen’s largest oil company—after brief clashes with Yemeni government forces and local tribes. The advance extended rapidly across Wadi Hadramout, capturing military bases, the presidential palace, and the international airport, while pushing east toward Mahra on the Omani border.

Across the south, flags of the former South Yemen state have been raised as calls for secession grow louder. In Aden, mass rallies celebrated the offensive and praised STC leader Aidarous al-Zubaidi. This can be described  as a major geopolitical win for the United Arab Emirates, dramatically extending its influence over key maritime routes, energy corridors, and future statehood outcomes, while leaving Riyadh increasingly uneasy about the emergence of a powerful, UAE-aligned southern entity on its border.

Sources
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TWEET OF THE DAY

lol.

TODAY IN HISTORY

(December 26, 1967): Flying saucers patented

The Wham-O Manufacturing Company was issued a U.S. patent on this day in 1967 for “a saucer-shaped throwing implement,” better known as a Frisbee-brand flying disc. These discs have their roots in the 1870s, when students in Connecticut tossed pie tins around for fun, and helped contribute to the rise of disc golf and other disc sports in the 1970s.