THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

A few major moves in global diplomacy today. Washington’s military campaign in the Pacific continues to stir debate, while Thailand has put its fragile peace deal with Cambodia on hold after fresh border clashes.

In the Middle East, Trump’s meeting with Syria’s president marked a remarkable policy shift, as Iran signals it’s open to reviving nuclear talks. Meanwhile, the humanitarian crisis in Sudan is worsening rapidly, with tens of thousands fleeing El-Fasher.

In today’s deep dive we’re analysing what al-Sharaa gained from his Washington visit.

THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. 6 killed in U.S. strikes on 2 more alleged drug boats in Eastern Pacific
The U.S. military carried out strikes on two vessels in the eastern Pacific, killing six individuals aboard, announced Pete Hegseth. Donald Trump authorised the operations, which targeted boats alleged to be linked to narcotics-trafficking organisations and transiting along known smuggling routes. While the Pentagon states no U.S. personnel were harmed, the campaign has drawn fierce criticism over its transparency and legal basis.
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2. Thailand suspends Cambodia ‘peace deal’ after soldiers injured
Thailand has announced the suspension of its “Joint Declaration on Thai-Cambodian Relations” with Cambodia after a landmine explosion in Sisaket province injured two Thai soldiers. The deal, signed in October in Kuala Lumpur and partially brokered by Donald Trump, included terms such as mine clearance and prisoner releases, but Bangkok says hostilities remain unresolved. Analysts warn the move could unravel the fragile truce and reignite one of Southeast Asia’s most volatile border conflicts.
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3. UN says 89,000 fled Sudan’s El-Fasher, urges immediate ceasefire
The International Organization for Migration (IOM), part of the United Nations system, reported that nearly 89,000 civilians have fled the city of El‑Fasher in North Darfur since its seizure by the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) last month. In a related move, UN Secretary-General António Guterres called for an immediate cease-fire, warning the conflict in Sudan is “spiralling out of control” and emphasising that countless civilians are now trapped amid hunger, violence and shrinking access to food and medical aid.
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4. Trump vows to ‘do everything’ to help Syria after meeting with Al-Sharaa
Trump pledged on Monday to “do everything we can” to support Ahmed al‑Sharaa and rebuild Syria following their historic White House meeting, the first ever by a Syrian president in Washington. The meeting also saw the U.S. extend its waiver of the Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act sanctions by 180 days, signaling a broader shift in U.S. policy toward Damascus. While Trump hailed al-Sharaa as a “strong leader,” the path ahead remains uncertain as Washington and Damascus work through years of war-torn infrastructure, sanctions and regional security complexities.
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5. Iran seeks ‘peaceful nuclear deal’ with U.S. officials says
Iran has publicly declared its readiness to strike a “peaceful nuclear deal” with United States, provided its national security and right to enrich uranium are fully respected, according to Deputy Foreign Minister Saeed Khatibzadeh. He accused Washington of sending contradictory messages and warned that true progress depends on America taking reciprocal steps rather than pressuring Tehran. Meanwhile, major sticking points remain, notably Iran’s refusal to halt its enrichment programme and the U.S. demand for major sanctions relief.
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DAILY DEEP DIVE

Trump Support For Syria?

Summary
Donald Trump hosted Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa at the White House in a historic Oval Office meeting — the first by a Syrian head of state since the country’s independence in 1946. Al-Sharaa, 43,  was praised by Trump as a “very strong leader” and “tough guy.” While no major policy announcements were made, Trump signalled U.S. willingness to “help Syria succeed” as part of broader Middle East stabilisation efforts. The United States lifted sanctions on the Syrian President and Interior Minister Anas Khattab, following a similar move by the U.N. Security Council ahead of al-Sharaa’s upcoming White House visit. 

The Arrival
What first caught my attention about this meeting was President al-Sharaa’s arrival through the back entrance of the White House, an unusual choice compared to recent foreign leaders, who have all entered through the main front entrance. While there could be a benign explanation, such as security logistics or construction, the decision stands out. When considered alongside the carefully managed tone and format of the meeting, it suggests there may have been deliberate intent behind the optics.

The Meeting
Trump was mostly broad in his support for Syria, praising al-Sharaa and suggesting a wider focus on stability in the region but no concrete policies on Syria. Most importantly, is that the infamous Caesar Act has been paused. The U.S. Treasury announced a 180-day partial suspension of the Caesar Act sanctions on Syria. The pause temporarily eases restrictions on new transactions involving the Syrian government but maintains bans on dealings tied to Iran or Russia, including transfers of their goods, technology, or financing. Sanctions against top former regime figures, such as Bashar al-Assad and his associates, remain fully in place. The move aims to provide Syria with short-term economic relief and support reconstruction efforts under the new government. Washington emphasised that the measure does not signal a full normalization but a conditional step toward regional reintegration.

Trump’s Angle
For the U.S. President, normalising relations with a non-Iran-aligned Syria aligns closely with his broader Middle East strategy. Syria once sat at the heart of the so-called “Shia Crescent,” serving as the critical link between Hezbollah, Iraqi militias, and Iran. Re-engaging Damascus under new leadership weakens that axis and strengthens U.S. influence in the region. Moreover, the relatively discreet nature of the meeting may have been a calculated move—allowing the administration to pursue regional objectives while carefully managing domestic political sensitivities and avoiding overt backlash from critics wary of engaging with Syria. 

What Was Gained And What Wasn’t?
Time is not on al-Sharaa’s side. The 180-day suspension of sanctions is effectively a testing period, a narrow window to prove that Syria’s new government can deliver progress. Within this timeframe, al-Sharaa must demonstrate that economic recovery is not only possible but already underway. The stakes are twofold: first, to convince a war-weary Syrian population that stability and prosperity are within reach after years of hardship; and second, to reassure investors and regional partners that Syria is a viable and safe destination for capital. Failure to show measurable results could jeopardize both domestic confidence and international support. To put this into perspective, Syria needs needs $216 billion for reconstruction according to the World Bank – they have secured just under $30 billion this year, a good step, but much more to go. 

This development will largely hinge on the situation with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF),  the Kurdish-majority faction,  and the new government’s ability to manage radical jihadist elements within its ranks. This matters because, under President Trump’s bilateral approach, no partnership comes without expectations. Syria is anticipated to join the 80-nation anti-ISIS coalition, a move that would test both al-Sharaa’s credibility and his command over his forces. While ISIS remains active in the central Syrian desert, al-Sharaa’s participation could present him as a cooperative global actor,  but also risk internal fractures if former insurgent factions resist fighting under a Western-led coalition. Regarding the SDF, one has to wonder how this will tie in as the SDF refuse to integrate without autonomy. There are many players involved in Syria’s reconstruction (Turkey, Gulf, USA, etc) any destabilisation could severely reduce further investment.

Sources:
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TWEET OF THE DAY

These stimulus checks are a major throwback to the covid crypto checks 😂 

TODAY IN HISTORY

(November 11, 1918): World War I ends

At 5:00 am on this day in 1918, the Allied powers and Germany signed an armistice document in the railway carriage of Ferdinand Foch, the commander of the Allied armies, and six hours later World War I came to an end.