THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

Today’s headlines reflect a mix of strategic manoeuvring, regional positioning, and long-term alignment shifts. From Trump’s submarine move to India’s oil stance and new US–Armenia military drills, governments are making calculated plays across defence and diplomacy.

Ukraine continues to pressure Russian infrastructure with targeted drone strikes, while Jordan responds to security threats on its border.

In the deep dive, we turn to eastern Ukraine, where attention is now shifting to the town of Dobropillya as Russia’s next potential objective after Pokrovsk.

THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. Trump moves nuclear submarines after ex-Russian President’s comments
Russia’s ex-president Dmitry Medvedev recently posted an aggressive rhetoric online, prompting President Trump to reposition two nuclear-capable submarines into what he called “appropriate regions” near Russia, as a precautionary response via Truth Social. Trump described Medvedev’s words as “foolish and inflammatory” and warned that “words are very important… they can often lead to unintended consequences,” stressing the move was driven by a duty to protect American lives. While advisers said the deployment was meant to signal resolve rather than mark an operational shift it has nonetheless added fuel to worsening US–Russia tensions and sparked unease among defence analysts.
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2. India will continue to buy Russian oil despite Trump threats
India has made it clear that it will continue buying Russian oil, despite warnings from US President Trump of potential import penalties, two senior Indian government sources told Reuters. They emphasised that these purchases are governed by long-term contracts, and no official directive has been given to curtail imports, regardless of geopolitical pressures. Russia remains India’s largest oil supplier, accounting for about 35% of total imports, even though spot purchases have recently slowed as discounts narrow.
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3. Jordan says 2 armed people killed after ‘infiltration attempt’ via Syrian border
Jordan’s armed forces announced on Saturday that they had killed two armed individuals after stopping their attempted infiltration from Syria into Jordan the day before, a move described in official statements as a “foiled infiltration attempt.” Remaining members of the group reportedly fled back into Syrian territory following the engagement. The incident reflects Jordan’s ongoing policy of firm border control and zero tolerance for armed cross-border infiltration.
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4. Ukraine targets Russian oil facilities and military sites in fresh drone strikes
Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces announced via Telegram that their drones successfully struck a major oil refinery in Ryazan setting oil storage ablaze and crippling rail-loading infrastructure and other processing units. The operation reportedly also hit a military airfield relied upon for drone operations and damaged a Bryansk-based microelectronics plant that produces weapons-grade control systems. These attacks underline Ukraine’s sharpened drone-led strategy to target Russia’s industrial and military nodes deep behind the front lines.
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5. Armenia and US to hold joint military drills on August 12-20
Armenia will host joint military drills with US forces from August 12 to 20, launching the 2025 edition of the Eagle Partner exercise as a visible step-up in bilateral cooperation. Under the Strategic Partnership Charter signed in January, these exercises aim to sharpen Armenia’s interoperability and upskill its peacekeeping forces, reinforcing a growing alignment with Western military standards.
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DAILY DEEP DIVE

DOBROPILLYA: THE NEW TARGET

Dobropillya has now taken on the role of a central logistics hub, linking central Ukraine to its last remaining strongholds in Donetsk of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk. A key highway runs between Kramatorsk and Dobropillya, making it a crucial lifeline for Ukrainian defence in the east. It appears the Russians have recognised that while closing in on Pokrovsk is useful, striking Dobropillya now would save them the hassle later. When Ukraine will have had time to regroup and reinforce the obvious next target. 

On Pokrovsk’s eastern flank, the Russian pincer continues to make local breakthroughs that repeatedly catch Ukrainian defenders off guard. These gains have done more than just stretch Ukrainian lines, they’ve created a buffer zone, allowing Russian forces to push their manoeuvres around the city without immediate counterattack. More importantly, these advances have given Russian command the confidence to keep expanding operations towards Dobropillya, while simultaneously heading west to close the pincer on Pokrovsk.

Dobropillya represents one of the last major urban obstacles before Russian forces reach what many are calling the “”New Donbas Line”.  a vast defensive belt spanning central and eastern Ukraine. This line consists of hundreds of kilometres of interconnected defences: anti-tank ditches, barbed wire, trench networks, and dragon’s teeth. It’s the culmination of months of Ukrainian engineering, built to slow or stop a full-scale Russian breakthrough. If Russia captures Dobropillya,  it’ll become a launching pad for one of the most challenging offensives of the war. 

Pokrovsk update:
Russian troops are well within the southern suburbs of the city, with DRG (recon) units deep within the central part of the city. The writing is on the wall here and many can see it. As we discussed just above, Dobropillya is now the more logical strategic objective, yet Pokrovsk holds a symbolic place in this conflict. The timing of the current breakthrough in the city is not on Ukraine's side. If Ukraine pulls out now, it risks a major PR defeat. The country would have to publicly acknowledge the loss of not only Chasiv Yar, a symbolic stronghold held for 16 bloody months, but also Pokrovsk, within the same 10- to 12-day period recently set as an unofficial deadline by U.S. President Trump for Putin to sit down for peace talks.

Sources:
Sources available on request

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TODAY IN HISTORY

(August 2, 1990): On this day in 1990, Iraq invaded Kuwait, and Saddam Hussein’s refusal to withdraw triggered the Persian Gulf War. The conflict saw a U.S.-led international coalition swiftly defeat Iraqi forces and liberate Kuwait.