THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

From Washington to the Caribbean and Hong Kong’s skyline, today’s headlines span security scares, diplomatic maneuvers, and unfolding tragedies.

We’re tracking a U.S. anti-drug push in the Dominican Republic, a rare dose of good news from Nigeria with kidnapped schoolgirls freed, a deadly high-rise fire in Hong Kong, fresh drone attacks on Iraq’s energy infrastructure, and a targeted shooting near the White House that has shaken the U.S. capital.

Today we’re doing a deep dive on three main possible suspects in the now-famous Witkoff-Ushakov-Dimitriev phone call leaks.

THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. Dominican Republic to allow US to use facilities for anti-drug ops
The Dominican Republic has agreed to allow the United States Department of Defense to use restricted zones at San Isidro Air Base and Las Américas International Airport to support U.S.-led anti-drug operations in the Caribbean. The arrangement permits the U.S. to refuel aircraft, transport equipment, and deploy personnel as part of a broader regional push against narcotics trafficking, with U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth present at the announcement. Authorities described the move as “limited and technical,” aimed at strengthening air and maritime surveillance and interdiction, reflecting a stepping-up of U.S. cooperation with Caribbean states in its war on drugs.
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2. Two dozen schoolgirls freed after kidnapping in northwestern Nigeria last week
Nigerian authorities say all 24 schoolgirls abducted last week from a boarding school in Kebbi State have now been freed. The initial kidnapping triggered widespread outrage and renewed scrutiny over a surging wave of mass school abductions in northern Nigeria. President Bola Tinubu welcomed the rescue and called for increased security deployment in vulnerable areas “to avert further incidents of kidnapping.”
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3. Hong Kong fire death toll rises to 55 as blaze continues to burn
A huge fire at the Wang Fuk Court residential complex in the Tai Po district of Hong Kong has killed at least 55 people, authorities said as of November 27, 2025, while rescue efforts continue with hundreds still missing. The blaze spread rapidly through multiple high-rise towers, prompting Hong Kong police to arrest three people on suspicion of manslaughter for allegedly using flammable materials that violated building codes. With some buildings still smouldering and nearly 900 residents displaced, the fire has already sparked calls for sweeping safety inspections of renovation projects across the city.
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4. Major gas field in Northern Iraq comes under drone attack 
A drone attack struck the Khor Mor gas field, causing a fire and injuring several workers, according to security sources. he attack underscores ongoing security challenges in the region and threatens a facility critical for the Kurdistan Region’s energy supply and economic stability. No group has yet claimed responsibility, and officials are investigating the strike’s origin as concern grows over repeated drone assaults on energy infrastructure.
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5. National Guard soldiers shot in ‘targeted’ attack near White House
Two United States National Guard soldiers were shot Wednesday just a few blocks from the White House in what officials say was a “targeted ambush.” The suspect, identified as a 29-year-old Afghan national, was wounded in a return exchange of gunfire and is now in custody, while both guardsmen remain in critical condition. Authorities are treating the attack as a potential act of terror, prompting tighter security in the capital and renewed debate over the deployment of Guard forces in Washington.
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DAILY DEEP DIVE

Who Leaked The Calls? U.S., Russia or Europe?

The leaked calls have become a major embarrassment, especially for Witkoff and Dmitriev, showing Witkoff far too cosy with his Russian counterparts. The real question is who leaked them — and why burn such a valuable source. Three possibilities stand out: US intelligence, Russian internal infighting, or a foreign service, likely European, looking to derail the peace process. And this isn’t just a leak; it’s the deliberate sacrifice of a long-running intercept. The selective snippets suggest far more recordings exist and were released to frame Russia as driving the plan while putting Witkoff in the worst possible light.

U.S Intelligence: 
We’ve discussed this before, and so have other analysts: we’re clearly seeing competing factions emerging within the Trump administration. The recent circus involving Rubio ( seemingly unaware of anything related to Ukraine–Russia FP despite being the secretary of state) has only added weight to this view. What we appear to have is one group leaning towards Ukraine and another leaning towards Russia. Witkoff and JD Vance fall into the latter camp, not because they “support” Russia, but because they believe Ukraine’s position is deteriorating and argue it should sue for peace now before the situation worsens. Others in the administration, such as Marco Rubio, the State Department and several old-school-Hawk GOP senators, believe Ukraine needs more support and that accommodating Russia is both a national security risk and not in Ukraine’s interests.

The five-minute transcript of Witkoff could easily have been released by the actors we outlined above, likely through an internally-aligned intelligence service, in an effort to derail the ongoing peace process and damage Witkoff’s image. After all, it wasn’t five hours of calls that were leaked — it was carefully clipped audio designed with a single intention: to undermine the process by casting Witkoff in a negative light and portraying Russian officials as the ones who framed the initial peace plan. A clear precedent exists: Michael Flynn was forced to resign in 2017 after revelations he had shared sensitive information with Russia’s ambassador and misled U.S. officials about the conversations.

Russian Intelligence
There are two ways to interpret why Russian intelligence might have leaked this source. The first is that the Kremlin is far from unified. Leaks are not unusual and have occurred before. We already know Lavrov and Dmitriev are not on good terms. A leaked Russian account even describes Dmitriev securing Putin’s personal approval to join the Saudi talks without informing Lavrov. When told the third seat was for Dmitriev, an irritated Lavrov reportedly pushed the chair away and insisted only Putin could authorise his presence — a rare public glimpse of internal Kremlin friction. And in the cut-throat Kremlin, with a history steeped in court politics since the days of Stalin, could someone really be petty enough to leak purely to prove Ushakov’s fears about the peace plan? It’s possible, though it’s hard to imagine Putin would tolerate such sabotage if negotiations were moving in the direction he wanted.

But you may be thinking: what do you mean if it was going the way he wanted? That leads us to the second possibility.

Part of the original leak of the peace document appeared designed to show Russia as “ready for peace” and cooperating with the US, essentially putting the ball in Zelensky’s court. This has been both sides' game all year, and many analysts believe Putin is the primary architect: shifting the burden of refusal onto Kyiv so Ukraine must prove to Trump that they are not the obstacle to peace. If we remove the bias from other analysts, a fundamental issue is that neither Putin nor Zelensky have wanted to shift on hardline objectives. 

Now consider the recent Geneva talks between the US and Ukraine. Accounts differ, but Rubio described them as the most productive yet. If Zelensky agrees to the revised peace plan, the ball will land in Putin’s court, and he will have to decide whether to accept it. One could argue that by leaking this audio, knowing the “peace ball” may soon land on his side, someone in Moscow may have wanted to deflate it before it arrived, especially if the original plan backfired politically.

And over all of this hangs the broader question: does Putin even want to end the war? He appears convinced he can still win by blood and iron, taking at minimum the Donbas (and, possibly, Zaporizhzhia) within the next 12–18 months.

European Intelligence
Senior Trump Administration officials now believe the October phone call between U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Putin’s top foreign-policy adviser, Yuri Ushakov wasn’t leaked from inside Washington or Moscow at all. According to the Wall Street Journal, they now suspect a foreign intelligence service, almost certainly European, intercepted the call by targeting Ushakov’s phone and then handed the recording to Bloomberg.

Now why would the Europeans do this? Early signals suggested the Trump administration didn’t want Europe involved in this latest round of peace talks. Then you look at some of the points in the plan that were simply not favourable to Europe. Point 14 is the clearest example: the plan gives the US half the profits, asks Europe to put in $100bn, unfreezes EU assets, and pushes the remaining Russian funds into a joint US-Russia investment vehicle. Meanwhile, Zelensky himself has said any agreement must involve his European allies, who have carried the bulk of the burden this year for funding

And this ties into a wider issue for Europe: it struggles to stay relevant. It’s far behind the US in innovation and equally behind China in manufacturing. Diplomatically, it’s fractured — and fractured means weak. Europe even produced its own peace plan, and yet when Rubio left his meeting with Umerov, he told a reporter he didn’t even know the Europeans had made one.

If peace talks go ahead without European input, it would be a global humiliation. Leaking this call may have been their way of stopping that scenario from happening. Add to that the fact Europe is already committing hundreds of billions to a military build-up for a war that might end long before that build-up is complete — and the incentive becomes even clearer.

Sources:
News/Journal sources available upon request, not shown to maintain visual integrity of page.

Read Witkoff-Ushakov transcript here:

Read Ushakov-Dmitriev transcript here

TWEET OF THE DAY

Is Trump forgetting about his own backyard…?

TODAY IN HISTORY

(November 27, 1895): Nobel Prizes established

Through the will drawn up by Alfred Bernhard Nobel, the Swedish chemist, engineer, and industrialist who invented dynamite and other, more powerful explosives, the Nobel Prizes were established on this day in 1895.