Why Russian Territorial Gains Have Been Low In The First Quarter

THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

It’s another heavy day across the geopolitical map — with fresh Iranian strikes hitting UAE oil infrastructure, while Donald Trump claims U.S. forces have taken out multiple boats in the increasingly volatile Strait of Hormuz, pushing tensions in the Gulf to the brink.

Elsewhere, a deadly factory explosion in China has prompted a top-level safety probe, while a U.S. military strike in the Caribbean highlights Washington’s expanding counter-narcotics operations beyond traditional theatres. And in Europe, Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced a unilateral ceasefire set to begin overnight.

Today we analyse the trend of low Russian territorial gains in the last four months and assess the factors contributing to these low numbers.

THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. UAE says Iran has resumed attacks after drone strike on oil facility
The United Arab Emirates has accused Iran of resuming attacks after a drone strike triggered a fire at a major oil facility in Fujairah, with authorities reporting injuries and deploying emergency crews to contain the blaze. UAE officials said additional missile and drone threats were detected and largely intercepted, marking a renewed escalation and the first such strike since a fragile ceasefire took hold in recent weeks. Iran has denied deliberately targeting the UAE, but the incident has heightened regional tensions and raised concerns over energy security.
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2. Trump claims US has ‘shot down’ 7 boats in Strait of Hormuz
Trump said American forces had “shot down” seven Iranian small boats in the Strait of Hormuz, as part of an escalating military operation to secure the vital shipping lane. The claim came after U.S. officials reported Iranian attacks involving missiles, drones, and fast boats targeting commercial and military vessels, with American forces responding by destroying several approaching craft. Iran has disputed aspects of the U.S. account, and the incident underscores rising tensions in the waterway, where recent clashes are testing a fragile ceasefire and disrupting global energy flows.
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3. 21 people killed in China fireworks factory blast as Xi demands safety probe
At least 21 people were killed and more than 60 injured after a powerful explosion tore through a fireworks factory in Hunan province, a major hub for China’s pyrotechnics industry. The blast caused widespread destruction, collapsing buildings and triggering a large-scale emergency response involving hundreds of rescuers, while nearby residents were evacuated due to the risk posed by stored explosive materials. President Xi Jinping has ordered a swift investigation and called for tighter safety controls in hazardous industries.
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4. US military strike on alleged drug boat kills two in the Caribbean  
The United States military said it carried out a strike on a vessel in the Caribbean suspected of drug trafficking, killing two people, as part of its ongoing counter-narcotics operations. U.S. Southern Command described the targets as “narco-terrorists” and said no American personnel were harmed in the operation, which took place along known smuggling routes. The strike is part of a broader campaign launched in 2025 that has resulted in hundreds of deaths across the Caribbean and Eastern Pacific.
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5. Zelenskyy announces ceasefire to go into effect on night of May 5-6
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that a ceasefire would take effect from midnight on the night of May 5–6, positioning it as a unilateral step to reduce hostilities. Kyiv said it would proceed with the truce regardless of Russia’s response, while calling on Moscow to reciprocate, amid ongoing fighting and limited progress toward a broader peace agreement. The move comes as both sides issue competing ceasefire proposals tied to Russia’s Victory Day commemorations, highlighting continued mistrust and the absence of a coordinated pause in the conflict.
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CONFLICT TRACKER

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Overall Summary Of The First Quarter Of The Year
Russian forces are continuing a fragmented but persistent advance across eastern Ukraine, with pressure applied along the Slovyansk, Pokrovsk and Kostyantinivka axes, alongside some territorial recovery near Huliaipole. The approach remains incremental rather than breakthrough-driven, relying on sustained pressure across multiple sectors rather than a single decisive push.

Ukrainian forces, meanwhile, are maintaining localized counteroffensives, recording tactical gains across Luhansk, Lyman and parts of Zaporizhzhia. These actions appear aimed at disrupting Russian momentum rather than reclaiming large depth. Across the front, expanding grey zones point to increasingly contested terrain, where control is fluid and neither side holds firm dominance.

Along the northern front, Russian activity has increased on the Kharkiv and Sumy borders, with multiple cross-border incursions and expansion of existing footholds. However, these operations currently lack the force concentration required for operational-level breakthroughs. A broader offensive in this direction would likely require redeployment away from priority sectors in Donetsk. The more probable objective is force fixation and the gradual establishment of a buffer zone, aligning with Moscow’s stated border security goals. Despite slower gains compared to last year, Russian operations are expected to intensify through summer, with the strategic focus remaining on securing the remainder of Donetsk oblast.

Additional Analysis
When we first take a look at the map, for the Russians it looks like a slow start to the year. And that is exactly what it is. Two points I will add here; firstly, this is a common occurrence and not something you would be surprised about if you have been following this conflict over the last couple of years. The winter season is often about consolidation, rotation and preparation. Historically, Russia reduces its attacks at an operational level to prepare for the spring and summer months, which provide the best conditions for offensive operations.

Secondly, this is the smallest number of territorial gains in these months compared to 2024. I would largely attribute that to a shift in strategy and tactics. 2025 saw the introduction of infantry-focused infiltration-style offensives, pushing through Ukrainian gaps, a very different approach to the costly, vehicle-heavy assaults of 2024. In 2026, we can see Ukraine adapting to this, with a heavier prioritisation on drone usage, primarily tasked with hunting infantry. Another important consideration is the average Russian soldier’s loss of both Starlink and Telegram, which has severely hindered tactical advances and cross-unit communication. Lastly, we have seen more Ukrainian counterattacks than in previous months, achieving success in Dobropillya, Huliaipole and Kupyansk. This has pushed Russian forces back and allowed additional time for defensive preparations.

Expect to see a significant increase in fighting starting from mid to late May, with a key focus on the remaining Donetsk cities of Sloviansk, Kramatorsk and Kostyantynivka.

Sources
Available upon request

TWEET OF THE DAY

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TODAY IN HISTORY

(May 5, 1862: Mexican victory in the Battle of Puebla

On this day in 1862, Mexico repelled the French forces of Napoleon III at the Battle of Puebla, a victory that became a symbol of resistance to foreign domination and is now celebrated as a national holiday, Cinco de Mayo.