THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

From U.S. strikes in the Pacific to new security alignments in Asia, today’s top stories span hard power, diplomacy and shifting alliances.

We track Washington’s escalating campaign against drug trafficking, a landmark Australia–Indonesia defence pact, tentative progress in Ukraine peace talks, fresh U.S. aid to Cuba despite rising tensions, and an unusually direct Trump endorsement in Japan’s snap election.

In today’s deep dive, we examine why peace seems no closer than it was just a few months ago, as both sides have red lines that cannot be compromised on.

THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. US strikes another boat in the Eastern Pacific, killing 2
The U.S. military conducted another strike on an alleged drug-trafficking vessel in the eastern Pacific Ocean on Thursday, killing two people, according to a statement from U.S. Southern Command. Southern Command said the boat was travelling along “known narco-trafficking routes” and engaged in alleged narcotics operations, though specifics about the vessel and those killed were not released. The latest attack is part of an ongoing campaign under the Trump administration targeting suspected drug-smuggling boats in international waters.
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2. Australia and Indonesia sign major security pact
Australia and Indonesia have signed a major bilateral security treaty in Jakarta, formalised by Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto, marking a significant expansion of defence cooperation between the two neighbours. The agreement commits both countries to regular consultation on security matters and deepens their strategic partnership, building on initiatives first agreed in Sydney last year and reflecting growing regional collaboration.
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3. Russia and Ukraine exchange prisoners as peace talks end without breakthrough
Russia and Ukraine concluded a second round of peace talks in Abu Dhabi without reaching a breakthrough on ending the nearly four-year war, though both sides agreed to a large prisoner exchange, with each side releasing 157 detainees for a total of 314 returned. The swap marked the first such exchange in months and was described as “detailed and productive” by U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff, even as substantive differences remained unresolved.
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4. Washington announces $6 million aid to Cuba amid diplomatic rift
The United States announced an additional $6 million in humanitarian aid for Cuba, bringing total U.S. assistance to about $9 million for those affected by last year’s Hurricane Melissa, with supplies of food and solar lamps to be distributed largely through the Catholic Church and Caritas. The announcement comes amid heightened diplomatic tension, as Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel accused Washington of enforcing an “energy blockade” by cutting off fuel supplies and threatening tariffs on countries that continue to provide oil.
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5. Trump endorses Japan’s Takaichi ahead of snap election on Sunday
Trump has publicly endorsed Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi ahead of Japan’s snap general election on Sunday, giving her his “complete and total endorsement” and praising her leadership and coalition’s work in a post on Truth Social. Trump’s backing, unusually explicit for a U.S. leader in a foreign election, also included an invitation for Takaichi to visit the White House on March 19, underscoring deepening ties between Washington and Tokyo. Takaichi is campaigning on economic and defence policies that have drawn attention domestically and in regional geopolitics.
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DAILY DEEP DIVE

Russia And Ukraine Conclude Talks

Wider Context
U.S.-brokered trilateral talks between Russia, Ukraine, and the United States concluded in Abu Dhabi without a breakthrough on ending the war, underscoring how far apart the sides remain despite sustained diplomatic engagement. The meetings focused primarily on territorial disputes and post-war security arrangements, with Russia pressing Ukraine to cede remaining parts of Donbas it does not control, and Kyiv demanding firm Western security guarantees to deter future attacks.

The talks were led by U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff, alongside Russian and Ukrainian delegations, and formed part of President Donald Trump’s renewed push to force momentum toward a negotiated settlement. While participants described discussions as “detailed” and “productive,” no concrete agreements were reached on the core political issues.

The sole tangible outcome was a reciprocal prisoner exchange (157 prisoners of war returned by each side) which officials framed as a confidence-building measure rather than a sign of imminent peace. Separately, Washington and Moscow agreed to re-establish high-level military-to-military communication, suspended since 2021, indicating limited risk-reduction efforts alongside stalled negotiations. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy struck a cautious tone, calling the process difficult and slow, while Russian negotiators accused European states of attempting to interfere.

Our Analysis
The hot-potato peace saga continues, what an interesting game this has turned out to be. I’ve said for months that a long-term peace settlement is unlikely, but smaller, transactional goals will be achieved. This latest trilateral meeting was one of many in the past, essentially a copy-paste exercise. One has to wonder who really wants peace here.

Let’s reiterate the main issues blocking it. For Russia, Putin remains adamant that the war can be won through blood and steel — a lot of blood. On paper, he is not entirely wrong. Russia is advancing across the front, statistically at an increasing rate. While this may look impressive in the context of today’s battlefield, technology, and tempo, when one zooms out the territorial gains are extremely negligible for a country the size of Ukraine.

However, this is a war of attrition. As Carl von Clausewitz described, “the culminating point” of a war is reached suddenly — not gradually — when an army that appears intact can no longer sustain offensive or even defensive action. What both sides are ultimately hoping for is an internal implosion of the enemy’s military and society, as seen in Germany during World War I.

Another major obstacle is Russia’s territorial position. Putin has repeatedly stated that he wants the four eastern Ukrainian regions claimed by Moscow  (Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk) to fall under full Russian control, citing referendums held under occupation. It is extremely difficult to imagine Putin backtracking on this. Autocrats cannot reverse course easily; admitting failure signals weakness, and weakness invites collapse.

The Ukrainian side is no simpler. For Kyiv, the core issue is that peace cannot be guaranteed, placing Ukraine in a strategic quagmire. Ukraine does not trust Russia not to attack again after replenishing its forces. This is why Kyiv refuses to give up the Donbas — not only for economic reasons, but because it is one of the most heavily fortified regions on earth. Handing it over would grant Russia easier access into Ukraine’s flatter, harder-to-defend interior.
Then there is the issue of security guarantees. From Zelensky’s perspective, concern is rational. Ukraine’s two main backers  (the EU and the United States) are increasingly at odds, sending mixed signals as both look inward. In that environment, how durable are any guarantees? This raises a harder question: will European societies actually be willing to fight on an eastern front if deterrence fails?

As for the talks themselves, I’ve previously described them as shooting a ball into your opponent’s court and forcing them to return it. We’re seeing elements of that now, as both sides advance demands they know the other cannot accept, which allows one side to claim the moral high ground and the other to be seen as the obstacle to peace.

And look, to say progress hasn’t been made is not entirely true — any discussion is better than no discussion. But we’re seeing the same repeating story being thrown around.

Sources
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TWEET OF THE DAY

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TODAY IN HISTORY

(February 6, 1840): Treaty of Waitangi is signed in New Zealand between the British and Māori tribes

On this day in 1840, the British and the Māori tribes of North Island signed Te Tiriti o Waitangi (the Treaty of Waitangi). Aotearoa—the name given to the land by Māori tribes—had become an unstable place by the 1830s, with various groups of European settlers competing for influence and control. To Māori leaders, the Treaty of Waitangi was a solution to the chaos, promising British “protection” from other settlers. The problem, however, proved to be the treaty's translations. In the English version, the British claimed full sovereignty over New Zealand, while the version in te reo Māori limited British influence. In the following years, the British continued to revise the treaty in their favor, eventually annexing New Zealand in full.