Why Ukraine Is Losing More Tanks Than Russia

THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

Ceasefire talks, airstrikes and quiet deal-making, so today’s headlines pull in very different directions.

Israel weighs a pause in Lebanon as Russia ramps up attacks in Ukraine, while across Asia, leaders double down on trade and energy ties. At the same time, the U.S. continues an aggressive campaign in the Pacific, showing how global tensions are playing out on multiple fronts.

Today we put the spotlight on Ukrainian vehicle losses and examine why there is a shift toward more Ukrainian losses than Russian in recent months.

THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. Israeli Security Cabinet said to consider one-week Lebanon ceasefire
Israel’s security cabinet is reportedly considering a temporary one-week ceasefire in Lebanon as diplomatic efforts intensify following recent US-mediated talks. The proposal, which could potentially be extended, is being discussed under US pressure and as part of broader efforts to de-escalate fighting with Hezbollah. However, no agreement has been finalised, with Israeli officials continuing military preparations and divisions within the government over whether to halt operations.
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2. Russian attacks leave 13 dead in Ukraine as strikes hit Kyiv and Odesa
At least 13 people have been killed following a wave of Russian missile and drone strikes across Ukraine, with major cities including Kyiv and Odesa among the hardest hit. Officials said residential buildings and infrastructure were damaged in the overnight attacks, which also left dozens injured and triggered large-scale emergency response efforts. The strikes mark one of the most intense recent assaults on Ukrainian cities.
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3. South Korea, Vietnam leaders to meet in Hanoi next week
South Korean President Lee Jae-myung is set to travel to Hanoi next week for talks with Vietnam’s leader Tô Lâm, marking the first visit by a foreign leader since Lam’s recent election. The meeting is expected to focus on strengthening economic and strategic ties, including cooperation on energy, infrastructure and supply chains, with several agreements likely to be signed. The visit highlights deepening ties between the two countries, as South Korea remains one of Vietnam’s largest investors and both sides look to expand cooperation amid shifting regional dynamics.
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4. Australia, Malaysia vow close cooperation on energy security
Australia and Malaysia have pledged to deepen cooperation on energy security, with both countries committing to strengthen supply chain resilience amid ongoing global disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict. In a joint statement following talks between Prime Ministers Anthony Albanese and Anwar Ibrahim, the two sides emphasised the importance of maintaining open and stable trade flows for essential energy supplies. They also agreed to expand regional cooperation and support energy transition efforts, highlighting the increasingly strategic role of bilateral ties in ensuring reliable fuel and energy access.
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5. US launches fifth strike on alleged Pacific drug boat in a week, killing three
The United States has carried out a fifth strike in as many days on a suspected drug-trafficking vessel in the eastern Pacific, killing three people, according to U.S. Southern Command. Officials said the boat was operating along known narcotics routes and linked to what the US describes as “narco-terrorist” networks, though limited evidence has been publicly provided. The latest strike is part of an ongoing military campaign that has now killed more than 170 people since late 2025.
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GLOBAL CONFLICT TRACKER

Russia-Ukraine Part 1

Since the onset of the invasion, the Russian army has taken substantial vehicle losses (particularly their tank fleet) prompting a series of reactive adaptations: cope cages, fielding T-55s, and eventually a shift toward infantry-centred assault. The reality is Russian forces were simply not prepared for the conflict unraveling in front of them, a problem only compounded by the evolution of drone warfare.

That said, there has always been a particular focus on Russian losses in open source reporting and while extremely high, they are likely inflated both in absolute terms and relative to Ukrainian counterparts, partly because western sources make up a large share of available OSINT material.

What we are now seeing is a gradual but definitive shift: Ukrainian losses have exceeded Russian ones since late 2025, and this is not an anomaly. It reflects a broad range of strategic and tactical changes on both sides, which we break down below.

Per Oryx data, Ukrainian monthly losses ran at 178 units in September 2025, 199 in October, and a partial November figure of 325 — suggesting a true November peak likely exceeding 400 units, a potential 120%+ spike above the September baseline driven by Pokrovsk escalation and Kursk withdrawal pressure. Russia by contrast lost just 86 units in September, rising to 151 in October as mechanised assaults resumed. By September–November, the ratio had fully inverted from the historical 3:1 to 5:1 in Ukraine's favour to Ukraine losing 1.3x to 2x more than Russia monthly.

Cumulatively, from December 2025 to April 2026, Ukraine added 1,129 confirmed losses (a 10.6% increase on the December baseline) with tanks and AFVs alone up 387 vehicles (+7.3%). The average monthly loss rate across that window ran at roughly 250 units, representing a 40.4% acceleration from the September baseline

1. Russian Drone Tactics Targeting Logistics
Since the second half of 2025, Russian drone teams (particularly the well-documented Rubicon unit) identified a critical security gap in Ukrainian logistics: the corridor between forward positions and key supply nodes stretching tens of kilometres behind the front was largely undefended and high in traffic. FPV deep-strikes on logistics vehicles and troop transports followed, a vulnerability Ukraine had largely failed to address due to manpower constraints.

Fibre-optic guided drones accelerated the damage significantly, extending effective strike range beyond 50km while remaining immune to electronic jamming. The tactical effect was measurable: September 2025 alone saw 87 armored cars destroyed in transit and rear zones — the single largest vehicle subcategory loss that month. The now widespread installation of anti-drone netting across frontline roads is a direct, visible response to this pressure.

2. Russia Shifted from Armoured to Infantry Assaults