Will Escalation Be The Right Choice For The USA?

THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

Things are heating up globally: the Pentagon is seeing a major leadership shake-up mid-conflict, while Donald Trump ramps up rhetoric against Iran and fresh reports point to rising risks in the skies.

Elsewhere, Myanmar’s junta tightens its grip on power, France and South Korea move closer on defence as the Middle East war ripples outward, and Cuba makes a surprising move to free more than 2,000 prisoners.

Today we discuss the latest in Iran, and how escalation psychology can lead to more problems than it can solve.

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THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. Top US army officer steps down after Hegseth reportedly demanded removal
U.S. Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth has removed the Army’s top general, Chief of Staff General Randy George, during the ongoing war with Iran, asking him to retire effective immediately. The decision is part of a broader shake-up of senior military leadership, with at least two other high-ranking officers also dismissed, though no official reason has been provided. The move has raised questions about stability and continuity within the Pentagon as U.S. operations in the Middle East continue.
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2. Trump threatens to destroy Iran power plants as reports emerge of downed US F-35
Trump has threatened to escalate strikes on Iran by targeting critical infrastructure, including bridges and electric power plants, warning that the U.S. has “not even started” destroying what remains unless Tehran complies with his demands. The comments come amid an intensifying air campaign, with recent strikes already hitting key sites and Trump signalling further attacks could follow in the coming weeks. At the same time, Iranian media have reported the downing of a U.S. F-35 fighter jet highlighting the growing risks and uncertainty as the conflict escalates.
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3. Myanmar’s coup leader elected President by pro-military parliament
Myanmar’s military leader Min Aung Hlaing has been elected president by a parliament dominated by pro-military lawmakers, formalising his grip on power five years after leading the 2021 coup. The vote followed a military-backed election that excluded key rivals, including supporters of jailed former leader Aung San Suu Kyi. Analysts say the move effectively rebrands military rule under a civilian framework, even as the country remains engulfed in a prolonged civil conflict.
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4. France and South Korea deepen defence cooperation amid Middle East war
France and South Korea have agreed to deepen defence cooperation following summit talks between President Emmanuel Macron and President Lee Jae-myung, as the Middle East war continues to reshape global security priorities. The two sides committed to expanding joint military exercises, defence industry collaboration and strategic coordination, while also working together to help stabilise key shipping routes such as the Strait of Hormuz. The discussions also included broader cooperation on energy security and critical technologies, reflecting growing alignment as both countries respond to the economic and security fallout from the conflict.
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5. Cuba to free 2,010 prisoners from island jails in ‘sovereign gesture’
Cuba has announced it will release 2,010 prisoners from its jails, describing the move as a “humanitarian and sovereign gesture” in state media. The decision marks one of the largest prisoner amnesties in recent years and the second such release in 2026, with authorities saying inmates were selected based on factors including good behaviour, time served and health. The announcement comes amid ongoing talks with the United States and heightened economic pressure on the island, suggesting the move could carry broader diplomatic significance.
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GLOBAL CONFLICT TRACKER

Iran-USA-Israel
The US and Israel have expanded their attacks on Iran, hitting a century-old medical research centre in Tehran, steel plants, and a bridge near the capital in some of the latest strikes on Iranian infrastructure. Trump posted a video of the airstrike hitting the B1 Bridge west of Tehran (described as the highest bridge in the Middle East) writing "The biggest bridge in Iran comes tumbling down, never to be used again — Much more to follow!"  Two US strikes on the B1 bridge reportedly killed eight people and wounded 95 others, causing it to collapse. Multiple explosions and fighter jet activity were reported across several Iranian provinces late Thursday and early Friday, including Khuzestan, Bushehr, Fars, Isfahan, Tehran, and Alborz. 

Iran's Missile and Drone Retaliation
Kuwait says a water desalination plant and an oil refinery have been targeted by Iran. A gas plant in the UAE was also targeted on Friday morning. Iran has also fired missiles at Israel, where homes and cars have been damaged. Drones struck the Mina al-Ahmadi refinery in Kuwait early Friday, causing fires at operating units but no injuries. Kuwait Petroleum Corporation confirmed the facility was hit. Abu Dhabi authorities responded to an incident of falling debris at the Habshan gas facilities following successful interception by air defence systems.

Iran warned it would expand strikes to US and Israeli fuel, energy, economic, and power infrastructure if Washington escalates attacks on its own infrastructure. The Revolutionary Guard's outlet Fars news agency listed bridges in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi, and Jordan as potential targets of Iranian military operations. Iran's military also says the war will continue until its enemies face "humiliation" and "surrender," specifically cautioning the US against a ground invasion. Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson declared the country was "ready for any type of attack, including a ground attack." 

Trump has in return stepped up threats against Iran, warning the US military "hasn't even started" destroying what's left of the country's infrastructure. In his April 2 address to the nation, Trump said the strikes have "dramatically curtailed" Iranian missile and drone systems and that attacks on Iran will escalate over the next two to three weeks. 

Like I’ve said before, what we’re seeing here is escalation psychology at its clearest. The U.S. has historically dictated the escalation ladder in previous conflicts, but with Iran holding strategic leverage over the Strait of Hormuz, that freedom is now visibly constrained. With each step up, the risk-to-reward ratio deteriorates further. What begins as controlled signalling gradually compounds into structural pressure. It starts to resemble a self-imposed corner, where each prior decision reduces flexibility, limits off-ramps, and raises the cost of reversing course. Over time, escalation becomes path dependent, where maintaining credibility and deterrence carries its own risks, but stepping back risks undermining both. This isn’t being helped by “yes-men” culture that allegedly exists in the White House – for instance, Trump is given a video collage of direct hits on Iranian targets each morning, that skew his perception about the trajectory of the conflict.

Other significant developments is the continued ostracising of the U.S. due to this conflict. European leaders are using this as an opportunity to fix old grudges over tariffs and this administrations comments on Europe as a whole. The United Kingdom is holding talks with about 40 countries on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which carries about 20% of the world's oil and LNG. The US is not taking part. The secretary-general of the Gulf Cooperation Council called for the UN Security Council to authorise the use of force to protect the Strait of Hormuz from Iranian attack – this was allegedly blocked by China, Russia and France. With a reported French ship crossing the Strait just in the last couple hours. 

We also have the big layoffs in the adminstration which we will cover another time. And the crashed F-15E, with the fate of the crew unknown.

Sources available upon request

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