THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

Overnight we saw a mix of economic moves, regional flare-ups and diplomatic manoeuvring shaping the global picture. From tariff rollbacks in Washington to a deadly blast in Kashmir and a tanker seizure in the Gulf, the news cycle was busy on almost every continent.

There were also developments in long-running conflicts, including a new peace roadmap in the DRC and rising tensions around Venezuela.

In today’s deep dive we’re examining a new law that looks to fix the growing manpower crisis in the Ukrainian army.

THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. Trump cuts tariffs on beef, coffee and other foods as inflation concerns mount
Trump has announced a rollback of tariffs on more than 200 food products, including beef, coffee, bananas and orange juice, in a bid to ease inflation-driven pressure on American households. The exemptions take effect retroactively and mark a sharp reversal of his previous stance that import duties were not contributing to grocery‐price inflation. Critics argue this move signals an implicit admission that tariffs have raised consumer costs, and the decision could reshape the admin’s wider trade strategy just ahead of holiday season pricing-watch.
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2. Blast at police station in Indian Kashmir kills 9, injures 27
A massive explosion ripped through the Nowgam police station in Srinagar, Kashmir, killing at least nine people and injuring 27 while officials were handling confiscated explosive material. Authorities say the blast was accidental, occurring during forensic sampling of a large cache of ammonium nitrate linked to a terror-cell investigation. The scale of the explosion was enormous, the station building was heavily damaged, vehicles ignited, and debris scattered across the compound, hindering immediate rescue efforts.
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3. Iran confirms seizure of tanker carrying petrochemical cargo
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have confirmed the seizure of a tanker in the Gulf that was carrying a petrochemical cargo bound for Singapore, saying the vessel violated regulations by transporting “unauthorized cargo.” State media reports indicate the inspection was launched after the ship was found to be in breach of customs or maritime rules, though Tehran has not provided detailed documentation on the vessel or its owner. The move underscores growing maritime risk in the region and raises fresh questions about how Iran may use such seizures as leverage in its broader geopolitical disputes.
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4. Democratic Republic of Congo & M23 Rebel group sign new roadmap to peace
The DRC government and M23 rebels have signed a new framework agreement in Doha, Qatar, aimed at ending the brutal conflict in eastern Congo. The deal builds on earlier declarations and includes confidence-building measures and a mechanism to restore state authority in rebel-held territories.
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5. Trump holds meetings with officials on Venezuela as military tensions rise
Senior Trump administration officials have held three high-level meetings at the White House this week to weigh possible military operations in Venezuela, amid a rising U.S. military presence in the Caribbean. Trump has already deployed F-35s, warships, and a nuclear submarine to the region, and reportedly told aides he’s “sort of made up his mind” on further action.
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DAILY DEEP DIVE

UKRAINE’S BIG AWOL PROBLEM

We all know Ukraine is facing a severe manpower shortage on the front line, but the real cause is often misunderstood. Yes, millions left the country as refugees, and yes, Ukraine’s population is far smaller than Russia’s. But the core problem isn’t a lack of people to recruit, it’s the sheer number of soldiers going AWOL.

Lower The Mobilisation Age?
Some Western pro-Ukrainian analysts argue that Kyiv must lower its mobilisation age, currently set at 25 (reduced from 27 in 2024), to expand the pool of fresh recruits. On paper, this idea makes sense. With the average Ukrainian soldier now in his 40s, the demographic outlook is undeniably bleak. But lowering the age further won’t meaningfully solve the core problem.

Think of it this way: you’re holding a bucket full of holes, and instead of repairing it, you keep pouring in more water, hoping it stays. That’s exactly what happens if Ukraine simply keeps lowering the mobilisation age.

Why?
The Answer: Since 2022, Ukraine has opened over 250,000 cases for desertion and unauthorised abandonment of military units,  a staggering indicator of how severe the manpower crisis has become. Around 50,000 of these cases qualify as full desertion, while the vast majority involve soldiers going AWOL: leaving their units without permission but not necessarily intending to flee permanently. What’s most alarming is the trend line. The biggest spike came through 2024 and into 2025, precisely when front-line pressure, exhaustion, rotation failures, and equipment shortages were at their worst.

In the first ten months of 2025, Ukraine recorded 161,000 cases of troops walking off their units without permission — nearly quadruple the number from the previous year. Despite the surge, only 6% of service members were formally notified of suspicion, and just 5% of cases made it to court, highlighting a discipline crisis the system simply can’t keep up with.

Yet only a fraction of these cases ever convert into formal charges,  just over 15,000 soldiers have actually been prosecuted. That gap points to a system overwhelmed by scale, not indifferent to the problem. Ukraine’s AWOL crisis isn’t a marginal issue; it’s a structural one. And it raises an uncomfortable question: how does Kyiv sustain a long war while simultaneously bleeding manpower from within?

Right now, the structural problems run through the entire mobilisation system. From the moment draft papers are issued, to the point men arrive at training centres, and finally when they reach the front lines — every stage is hindered by poor planning, weak discipline, and inconsistent organisation. This breakdown creates the perfect environment for soldiers to go AWOL. 

And the reality in this attritional war is that the manpower shortage creates a cycle: Low manpower leads to lower morale due to exhaustion and limited rotations or rest, this leads to more AWOL’s, which leads to more manpower issues. 

The Fix?
On Nov. 3, Defense Minister Denys Shmyhal unveiled a new set of military contracts for AFU personnel aimed at addressing two major problems: rising desertion rates and collapsing morale. The bill (№ 13574) introduces a new type of military contract in the Armed Forces of Ukraine that grants soldiers the right to a one-year leave after just two-to-three years of service. It applies initially to recruits aged 18-24, though some lawmakers want to broaden it to all ages. The reform is designed to tackle exhaustion, dwindling morale and spikes in AWOL cases among front-line troops. Under the current system, many serve years without proper rotation or break. The law aims to establish clearer fixed terms of service and offer a tangible “reset” period between deployments. Critics caution that while this is a step towards improving retention and discipline, it won’t fully succeed unless deeper systemic issues – like training, logistic support and unit cohesion – are addressed. The broader aim: making the army more sustainable, rather than simply drawing in fresh recruits.

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Sources:
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TWEET OF THE DAY

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TODAY IN HISTORY

(November 15, 1988): Palestinian state proclaimed by Yasser Arafat

Meeting at Algiers, the Palestine National Council, at the urging of PLO chairman Yasser Arafat, issued a declaration of independence for a state of Palestine in the West Bank and Gaza Strip on this day in 1988.