Zelensky's Peace Deal

THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

From hard power to diplomatic fine print, today’s headlines span the globe. From Trump signalling support for strikes on Iran, to war games tightening around Taiwan and fresh fault lines opening between Saudi Arabia and the UAE in Yemen.

We also mark the passing of a towering figure in South Asian politics with the death of Bangladesh’s former prime minister Khaleda Zia, while Spain quietly balances geopolitics and industry by carving out an exception for Airbus amid its Israel tech ban.

In this Deep Dive, we’re going to unpack the latest round of negotiation with with Zelensky’s new plan.

THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. Trump says he supports strikes on Iran in meeting with Netanyahu
Trump said on Monday that he would “absolutely” support possible Israeli strikes on Iran if Tehran continues to rebuild its ballistic missile or nuclear programmes, warning that the United States could take similarly forceful action to “knock down” such developments during a press conference alongside Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at Mar-a-Lago. Trump made clear that Washington’s backing would hinge on Iran’s weapons activities, suggesting that renewed military pressure might be necessary if Iran reconstitutes capabilities damaged by earlier strikes.
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2. Taiwanese patrol shadows Chinese vessel amid blockade drills
A Taiwanese Coast Guard 100-ton patrol vessel, PP-10090, was seen tracking a Chinese Coast Guard ship off Taiwan’s coast as China’s People’s Liberation Army Eastern Theater Command conducted surprise military drills in the area. The exercises are aimed at simulating a blockade of the island, heightening tensions in the surrounding waters.
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3. Saudi Arabia says national security a red line as UAE forces told to leave Yemen
Saudi Arabia has issued a stark warning that its national security is a “red line” as tensions with the United Arab Emirates escalate over the conflict in Yemen, backing a call for UAE forces to withdraw from Yemeni territory within 24 hours after accusing Abu Dhabi of supporting separatist activity that threatens Riyadh’s interests. The Saudi-backed Presidential Leadership Council in Yemen also cancelled its defence pact with the UAE, imposed a temporary blockade and declared a state of emergency, while a Saudi-led coalition conducted limited airstrikes on what it described as foreign military support for UAE-linked forces at the southern port of Mukalla. Riyadh said it would not hesitate to confront any threat to its security, emphasising the need for coordinated military action under the legitimate Yemeni government and warning that actions seen as undermining the coalition could further destabilise the region.
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4. Khaleda Zia, Bangladesh’s first female prime minister, dies at 80
Khaleda Zia, Bangladesh’s first female prime minister and long-time leader of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), has died at the age of 80 after a prolonged illness, her party said on Tuesday, with doctors citing advanced cirrhosis of the liver, arthritis, diabetes and heart and chest problems. She rose to power in 1991 as one of the first women to lead a democratic government in a predominantly Muslim nation, serving multiple terms and shaping decades of fierce rivalry with fellow leader Sheikh Hasina, a dynamic that has defined much of Bangladesh’s modern political landscape.
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5. Spain grants Airbus exemption from its ban on using Israeli tech
Spain’s cabinet has granted Airbus an exception to its September ban on military and dual-use products from Israel, allowing the company to continue using Israeli technology in the production of aircraft and drones at its Spanish facilities, despite the broader embargo tied to the Gaza war. The exemption was justified by the government on economic grounds and reflects tensions within the ruling coalition over balancing sanctions with industrial interests. The move highlights the challenge Madrid faces in implementing its trade restrictions while protecting key domestic industries, and the defence ministry is reportedly working on plans to reduce reliance on such technology over time.
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DAILY DEEP DIVE

Zelensky New Peace Deal

Context
As diplomatic activity accelerates into year’s end, Volodymyr Zelensky is set to meet Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago to present Ukraine’s 20-point peace proposal, a direct counter to the Trump administration’s earlier 28-point framework. Zelensky has described this period as one of the most decisive diplomatic windows of the year — with outcomes likely to shape the trajectory of the war heading into 2026.

At the core of Kyiv’s proposal are robust security guarantees modelled on NATO’s Article 5. Ukraine would retain an armed force of roughly 800,000 personnel, rejecting U.S. calls to cap its military at 600,000. Russia, under the plan, would formally adopt a non-aggression posture toward both Ukraine and Europe. Kyiv also reiterates its commitment to EU accession on a defined timeline while remaining a non-nuclear state.

On territory, Zelensky’s plan marks a clear departure from Washington’s earlier recognition-based approach. Rather than conceding Crimea, Donetsk, or Luhansk, Kyiv proposes freezing combat along current battle lines, followed by mutual withdrawals and the creation of internationally supervised demilitarised zones across Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson. Crucially, the proposal also calls for a full Russian withdrawal from Kharkiv, Sumy, Mykolaiv, and Dnipropetrovsk, signalling that Kyiv still views territorial integrity as non-negotiable.

Economically, the plan seeks $800 billion in reconstruction assistance, alongside accelerated talks on a U.S.–Ukraine free trade agreement. On energy, Zelensky rejects joint Russian control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, instead proposing a split arrangement where Ukraine retains half of the output, with the remainder allocated by Washington.

The Russian response remains sceptical. Vladimir Putin continues to demand full control of Donetsk, while Moscow has shown little appetite for Western-backed security guarantees. With Russia sustaining high-tempo strikes across Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, the gap between diplomatic proposals and battlefield realities remains wide — raising the question of whether this process is genuine negotiation, or positioning for the next phase of the war.

As we’ve noted before, meaningful progress remains unlikely. Both sides continue to clash over the core issue of territory, particularly in Donetsk. For Kyiv, conceding land crosses a political and strategic red line. For Moscow, control of Donetsk is framed as the minimum condition for ending the war. Until this fundamental contradiction is resolved, negotiations are likely to stall or remain purely performative.

Sources
News/Journal sources available upon request, not shown to maintain visual integrity of page.

TWEET OF THE DAY

Very very depressing…

TODAY IN HISTORY

(December 30, 533): Codex Justinianus

The major elements of the Code of Justinian went into effect, according to many sources, on this day in 533. Developed between 529 and 565, this collection of laws and legal interpretations rationalized a confusing tangle of existing Roman statutes, and it provided the foundation for civil law as it is practiced in Europe and Latin America today.